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'I don't trust these elections'

It's a truism that bears paraphrasing -- you can take a Gujarati out of Gujarat but you can't take Gujarat out of a Gujarati.

This explains why the large expat community in the United States from the western Indian state is following the impending election very closely. After all, it was the same community that raised millions of dollars in relief after a devastating earthquake ravaged the state in 2001 -- so the connect is obvious, and strong. Interestingly, the same community raised next to nothing after the communal violence that broke out earlier this year.

Though the odd voice sings a different tune, the general feeling seems to be that the BJP will return to power, despite general agreement that the race will be a close one.

"It's a neck-to-neck battle," says Raj Vohra, who owns the successful Sam & Raj appliances store in Jackson Heights. "But I think the BJP will win, which will actually be good for the overall development of the state."

Shrijee Tripathi, who owns a roadside newspaper and candy store in midtown Manhattan, is more vocal. "The BJP should win," he told rediff.com. "The Congress was in power for 45 years, but did nothing for my village Sarkhuj. But in three-and-a-half years, the BJP has built roads and underground sewers, and solved the water problem."

For Dr Mukund Mody, the issue is not just governance but also the larger impact of the election on the BJP's future. "It is crucial for the BJP, because they have lost a number of states," says Mody, one of the founders of the Overseas Friends of BJP and a close friend of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. "No one, neither the media nor the polls, are saying the Congress will win but if the BJP fails to get 2/3^rd of the vote, they'll say the BJP has lost."

If sympathy for the BJP is almost universal, the name of its chief minister and electoral spearhead Narendra Modi evokes mixed feelings.

Some, like Ashok Meghani, feel Modi is not the right man for the job. "I am not in favor of Modi, but I feel that a lot of people of Gujarat do want him back," Meghani told rediff.com. Meghani's reaction, like many others, stems from the manner in which Modi handled the anti-Muslim riots earlier this year.

"The handling of the communcal violence was not right," says Subhash Kapadia, who runs an electronics and appliances store in Queens. "Besides, Modi does not have much influence with Delhi either."

However, Modi just might become chief minister by default, feel some. "[Shankersinh] Vaghela has been a opportunist, switching parties according to convenience and the people know that very well," says Kapadia.

Tayeb Poonawala, who heads the Indo-American Interfaith Forum and is a community leader in the Gujarati Bohra Muslim community, feels Modi will come to power for strategic reasons, rather than popularity. "Haren Pandya, who was a credible rival of Modi, was deliberately not given a ticket by the BJP because they did not want to take any chances. That will make sure Modi comes to power."

And despite the violence that rocked Modi's reputation, Vaghela's earlier deeds may finally be catching up with him. "A man who literally kidnapped 34 legislators and kept them hostage should not become the CM," says Kiran Desai, himself a leading politician in New Jersey, and vice-president of the New Jersey Democratic Committee. "Between the two of them, if I had to I would definitely vote for Modi, he comes across as an honest person." Interestingly, that assessment comes from a person who doesn't really keep track of politics in India.

But Drashti Patel, a Gujarati news producer for the Indian American channel TV Asia, is more emphatic.

"Narendra Modi should definitely be the chief minister," she says. "They should stop blaming him for the riots. If you just meet him once, you will realize he is not the kind of man portrayed by the mainstream Indian media."

"The problem for most of us [Gujaratis] here is that it is really difficult to judge because of the contradictory reports," she says. "If you talk to anybody in Gujarat, they are confident that BJP will come to power. But the news web sites give the picture that the BJP candidates are not likely to do that well."

Patel, originally from Ahmedabad, adds that "Muslims should feel no threat if the BJP comes to power. Even after Godhra, Modi called several Muslim leaders to talk to them about what should be done. Even now, Muslim leaders continue to meet him."

Interestingly, Desai urges Gujaratis back home to put the violence and religious differences behind them while voting. "I would say vote for people who can do some good," he says. "I am not really following the election in Gujarat, but India is a democracy and I really don't mind either party as long as it reflects the will of the people."

Besides, he argues, it was the political parties of every hue that were behind the violence so far. "None of them wants peace, they are the ones inciting people and I can only blame the politicians for not coming out openly," he says. "I wish the citizens would make the right choice, since the government is for everybody."

Tripathi, on the other hand, feels the violence won't affect voting. "Even when Indira Gandhi died, that's what Rajiv Gandhi had said, that there would be some reaction," he argues. "And anyway, the Congress gave Gujarat nothing but corruption."

"It actually might be better if the BJP returns to power," argues Vohra. "With BJP at the local level and the BJP at the federal level, they will ensure that there is no repeat of the violence. Besides, people are pretty much fed up of the violence and are looking for good governance and a stable government, which the BJP will provide better than the Congress."

Differing from this consensus is Dr Mody, who feels that the violence will have an impact on voting patterns. "For so long, the people of Gujarat have suffered because of vote politics to the point where, today, a young man's pride in his faith is more important than the fact that he may be unemployed," argues Mody.

On the other side of radical sits Anju Desai, a supervisor in the Department of Revenues with the Santa Clara County Office in California, who feels it is time for hard decisions.

"My sister tells me the situation is the same, the riots are still there, life is still not normal," says Desai, adding that she still worries about her family's safety. "How can you have a man who hasn't provided even basic security as chief minister? It's time the federal government stepped in and took over the state. I don't trust these elections because there's so much politics that they are bound to be unfair."

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