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Congress buoyed by exit-poll revelations

With three of the five phases of the general election over, the focus in the Congress is slowly shifting to the post-poll scenario.

The party has been buoyed by the third-phase exit-poll revelation that parties of the National Democratic Alliance are not faring up to their expectation in the politically crucial states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

Both states still have two more phases of polling left, though most opinion polls indicate that the Bharatiya Janata Party will suffer reverses in Uttar Pradesh while its ally, the Samata Party, may not make that great a gain in Bihar as was earlier believed.

On the other hand, the Congress is expected to make handsome gains in both states while its ally in Bihar, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, is likely to hold its position with some minor losses.

With indications of a gain in the Lok Sabha over its current 141 seats, the Congress is hoping to get the support of other parties in its bid to form the government, or, more important, prevent the NDA from forming the government.

One such person who has been sending feelers to the Congress is former defence minister Sharad Pawar. The former Congress Working Committee member, who broke away in May to form the Nationalist Congress Party, is apparently disturbed by the exit poll prediction of just six Lok Sabha seats for his outfit in Maharashtra (total seats: 48).

Worse, from Pawar's point of view, the exit polls also claimed that the NCP would not even be in a position to form the government in Maharashtra. According to sources, Pawar fears that if the NCP cannot form the state government, many of his legislative assembly members will return to the Congress. But, if Pawar desires Congress support to form the government in Maharashtra, he will have to compensate the Congress at the Centre.

According to sources, Pawar has been sending out feelers to key Congress politicians, both in Maharashtra and at the Centre, waiting to gauge their reaction on a possible post-election tie-up. But with the results still two weeks away, nothing concrete is likely to emerge right now.

With the battle for the Hindi heartland still on, the Congress is pegging its hopes on the NDA getting only between 280 and 290 seats in the Lok Sabha. "If they do cross the 300 mark, it will become difficult to break the NDA. But if they don't and are near the 280 mark (the majority mark is 272), then some shifting of political parties is bound to occur," said sources close to 10 Janpath.

But the Congress is also aware that even if the NDA fails to form the government, many of the other parties are loath to support a Congress government. The memory of Sonia Gandhi proclaiming at Rashtrapati Bhavan that she had the support of 272 members of Parliament to form a government, and then failing to do so, is still fresh in the minds of many Congressmen.

"The possibility in such a situation would be to allow a Third Front, led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), to form the government with outside support from the Congress. Jyoti Basu as prime minister would be acceptable to all, unlike a Congress leader," said the source, "the aim being to ensure that the BJP does not form the government."

The source, however, admitted that his fear was whether many in the Congress would be willing to play second fiddle to a Third Front government again. In 1996, the Congress gave outside support to a United Front government, first led by H D Deve Gowda and later by I K Gujral.

Many Congress leaders are already unhappy at being out of office and are keen to enjoy the trappings of power again. To prop up another government may not be acceptable to them. Moreover, there is the fear that a rejuvenation of the Third Front will be at the political cost of the Congress, since both appeal to the same segment of voters -- the poor, backwards, and the minorities.

But the Congress is also aware that allowing the NDA to form the government will hurt it much more. Hence, a Third Front government supported by it will be preferable to an NDA regime, should such a choice present itself.

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