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Home ministry report gives NDA 285, Cong 210

Tara Shankar Sahay in New Delhi

The Union home ministry has reassured Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee that the Congress and its allies will not be in a position to the form the next government. Latest trends give the Congress and allied parties a maximum of 210 seats, home ministry officials said today.

Rattled by recent reports of the Congress gaining ground in some states, Vajpayee had asked Union Home Minister Lal Kishenchand Advani to give him a "true picture" of the electoral prospects of the opposition party, including its strengths and weaknesses in different states.

"Data coming in since the last four days indicate that the Vajpayee government will be returned to power, much to the prime minister's relief," the officials said.

According to the latest report of the home ministry, the National Democratic Alliance led by the BJP will win between 285 and 295 seats while the Congress and its allies (the RJD, AIADMK and RPI) will win a maximum of 210.

The prime minister's uneasiness had increased after state-level BJP leaders suggested that the Congress is poised to spring a surprise in Gujarat, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. And the four-day home ministry exercise found that the BJP had indeed lost ground in these states.

According to the report, the BJP, which won 57 of the 85 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh last year, will lose 10 to 15 seats this time. And the BJP's loss will mostly be the Congress's gain.

This has increased the prime minister's annoyance with the factionalism in the Uttar Pradesh unit of the BJP, leading him to speak of the need to overhaul the state leadership after the election.

As of now, as per the latest government data, the Congress may gain between 10 and 15 seats in Uttar Pradesh. Since the Congress won zero seats in the state last year, it is indeed a major breakthrough for the one-time ruling party.

The saffron party's electoral performance in Gujarat too is poised to slide. The BJP won 19 seats last year to the Congress's seven. But this time, the government's inquiry indicates, the Congress may win half-a-dozen more.

With electioneering continuing at fever pitch and candidates of both parties using every device at their disposal to outdo one another, the officials indicated that the picture could change still further in favour of the Congress.

The BJP is also worried that its ally, the Shiromani Akali Dal, is fast losing ground in Punjab. The Congress has made deep inroads and is likely to bag at least six seats. But the BJP, which won three seats last time, is likely to retain them.

Madhya Pradesh is another state that's worrying Vajpayee. The Congress won 10 of the 40 seats there last year, and current trends suggest it may capture another 10. The home ministry's report gives the credit for this to Chief Minister Digvijay Singh, who has left no stone unturned to ensure a good show by his party.

The Congress's electoral investments in Delhi, especially over the last week, also appear to be paying off. Of the seven seats in the National Capital Region, the Congress is likely to clinch three (earlier estimates had given it just one). Last year, the BJP had won six.

Vajpayee, however, has been reassured by the Telugu Desam Party's performance in Andhra Pradesh. Chandrababu Naidu's outfit has established its sway in 18 of the 42 seats in the state, and may win two more, thanks to infighting and dissidence in the state Congress. In fact, this was why Congress president Sonia Gandhi decided against contesting from Cuddapah, the report says.

Another BJP's ally, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, is poised to gain in Tamil Nadu at the expense of the AIADMK, a former ally, while the Marumalarchi DMK and Pattali Makkal Katchi are tipped to retain their tally of seats. According to the home ministry's report, the Tamil Maanila Congress, which had three seats in the outgoing Lok Sabha, will win just two while Jayalalitha's party will collect four or five less than the 18 it won last year.

The report indicates that the BJP will win three out of four seats in Himachal Pradesh and improve its performance in Rajasthan where a combination of infighting and the anti-incumbency factor appears to be weighing Sonia Gandhi's party down.

But what has really heartened the BJP leadership is the report that the BJP-Janata Dal (United) combine is set to successfully challenge the Rashtriya Janata Dal's supremacy in Bihar. According to latest trends, the combine is poised to wrest 35 seats in the state, mostly at the RJD's expense. The RJD's tally has been pegged at just eight. This tallies with many newspaper reports that Laloo Prasad Yadav is losing his touch.

In West Bengal too, the prime minister is satisfied with the advances made by the Trinamul Congress of Mamata Banerjee. The party is poised to win 15 of the 42 seats in the state, rattling the Marxists. And since voting in West Bengal only takes place on October 3, the home ministry report does not discount the possibility of Banerjee's party improving its performance further.

In Orissa, the factionalism in the Biju Janata Dal will benefit both the Congress and the BJP. And in Haryana, the BJP-Indian National Lok Dal combine will bag a majority of the 10 seats, the report says.

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