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After the drawn third Test against Australia at The Gabba, India remains in third place on the WTC 2023-25 points table with a PCT of 55.88.
The Rohit Sharma-led team has two Tests left in Australia, and their fate is still in their hands.
The race for the WTC 2025 final remains tight, with India, Australia, and South Africa all holding a realistic chance of qualifying.
India must aim for wins in their final two Tests to secure their spot, while Australia and South Africa have more margin for error but still need strong performances in their remaining games.
The upcoming matches will be decisive in shaping the final standings.
Here are the scenarios:
India’s Path to WTC Final Qualification
Win Both Remaining Tests
If India wins the final two Tests (at MCG and SCG), their PCT will rise to 60.53, securing them a spot in the final regardless of other results.
Win One Test and Draw One
A win and a draw will take India’s PCT to 57.02. In this case, they’ll need:
Australia to win no more than 1-0 in their series against Sri Lanka.
South Africa to lose at least one Test against Pakistan.
Draw or Lose Both Tests
If India only draws or loses their remaining games, their chances depend heavily on external factors, such as:
Australia losing to Sri Lanka.
South Africa losing both Tests to Pakistan.
If Series Ends 1-1
India’s PCT will drop to 53.51. They will need:
South Africa to lose 2-0 to Pakistan.
Australia to lose or draw both Tests against Sri Lanka.
Lose the Series 1-2 or Worse
If India loses the series, their PCT will drop below 51.75, effectively eliminating them from contention as Australia and South Africa will finish higher.
Australia’s Path to WTC Final Qualification
Australia sits in second place with a PCT of 58.89. Their destiny depends on both their performances and other results.
Here’s how they can qualify:
Win Both Tests Against India
A clean sweep over India will guarantee their spot in the WTC final, irrespective of results against Sri Lanka.
Win One and Draw One Against India
This will take their PCT to 57.69. To qualify, they need:
At least one win in their two-Test series against Sri Lanka.
Lose One and Draw One Against India
Australia’s PCT will drop to 55.88. They must:
Beat Sri Lanka 2-0 to reach a PCT of 58.77 and surpass India’s possible PCT of 57.02.
Lose Both Tests to India
If Australia loses both Tests, they must rely on South Africa losing 2-0 to Pakistan and India failing to win both their remaining matches.
South Africa’s Path to WTC Final Qualification
South Africa currently leads the WTC standings with a PCT of 63.33. Their final two Tests are at home against Pakistan, and their path is relatively straightforward:
Win One Test Against Pakistan
A single win will keep South Africa’s PCT at 60.00 or higher, securing their spot in the final if either India or Australia falters in their remaining games.
Win Both Tests Against Pakistan
A 2-0 victory will take their PCT to an untouchable 69.44, guaranteeing their place as the top team in the WTC final.
Lose One Test to Pakistan
If South Africa loses one Test, their PCT will drop to 55.56. They’ll need:
India and Australia to fail to achieve their maximum PCT potential.
Lose Both Tests to Pakistan
A 2-0 defeat will drop South Africa’s PCT to 52.78, making it almost impossible for them to qualify unless India and Australia both fail to secure any further wins.