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Pakistan's campaign in the Champions Trophy 2025 has hit a major roadblock after back-to-back defeats, including a crushing six wicket loss to India in Dubai on Sunday.
With their semifinal hopes hanging by a thread, Mohammad Rizwan and his men are now at the mercy of other results.
Despite languishing at the bottom of Group A with a poor Net Run Rate (-1.087), Pakistan are still mathematically in contention. However, their qualification path is far from straightforward.
Here's what needs to happen for Pakistan to stay alive:
Bangladesh Must Beat New Zealand
Pakistan's first hope lies in Bangladesh pulling off an upset against New Zealand in their match on Monday. If New Zealand wins, Pakistan will be eliminated alongside Bangladesh.
Pakistan Must Beat Bangladesh
If Bangladesh stun New Zealand, Pakistan's fate will hinge on their final group-stage match. They must secure a convincing victory over Bangladesh to stay in the race.
India Must Beat New Zealand
For Pakistan to qualify, India need to defeat New Zealand in their last group-stage encounter on March 2.
If this happens, Pakistan, New Zealand and Bangladesh will all be tied with two points each, and the team with the best Net Run Rate will advance to the semifinals alongside India.
While their qualification hopes are still alive, the road ahead is incredibly tough. They not only need favourable results from other teams but must also produce a dominant performance against Bangladesh to boost their Net Run Rate.
Acknowledging the precarious situation, Rizwan admitted the team was no longer in control of its fate.
'We can say that our campaign is as good as over. We have to depend on results of other matches. There is hope as there is one more game left. As a captain, I don't like this scenario (depending on other teams). We should have fate in our hands,' Rizwan said at the post-match press conference.
If Pakistan fails to meet these conditions, their Champions Trophy campaign will come to a premature and crushing end.