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ICC Test rankings

Pakistan inch closer to India

Pakistan's 2-0 away win against Zimbabwe brings them closer to India. But India (41.28) are still holding on to their fifth position ahead of Pakistan (40.79).

This might surprise Indian fans but if Pakistan had, instead, beaten Zimbabwe in Pakistan, they would have overtaken India! Pakistan seem to win away series, especially against weak opponents, effortlessly. India haven't been able to do this for a very long time.

Sadly, Sri Lanka missed a wonderful opportunity by failing to win the second test. A win would have catapulted them to the fifth position, ahead of both India and Pakistan (and Sangakkara would have had much more to say behind the stumps!). Now, with their 2-0 defeat, Sri Lanka (38.27) fall a little more in the test rankings. South Africa (56.42) gain a little, but Australia (75.95) are still very far away.

The current (as on Nov 21, 2002) home-away point tally of test playing teams is shown, below, in Table A.
-- How the rankings work...

TABLE A: Test Score Card (as on Nov 21, 2002)

		A W A Y
		Aus	Eng	Ind	NZ	Pak	RSA	SL	WI	Zim
H O M E	Australia		4 / 5 3.5 / 5	1 / 3 3 / 3	3 / 3 1.5 / 3	3 / 3 3 / 3	2 / 3 3 / 3	1 / 3 3 / 3	2 / 4 5 / 5	1 / 1 -
	England	1.5 / 5 1 / 5		1 / 3 2 / 4	1.5 / 3 1.5 / 4	2 / 3 1 / 2	2 / 5 3 / 5	2 / 3 2.5 / 3	2 / 6 3.5 / 5	1 / 2 1.5 / 2
	India	0 / 3 2 / 3	2 / 4 2 / 3		1 / 3 2 / 3	2 / 4 1 / 3	0.5 / 2 0 / 2	1 / 3 1.5 / 3	2 / 5 2.5 / 3	1 / 2 2 / 2
	New Zealand	1.5 / 3 0 / 3	2.5 / 4 1.5 / 3	1 / 3 2 / 3		0 / 1 1.5 / 3	0.5 / 3 1 / 3	1 / 3 2 / 2	1.5 / 2 2 / 2	2 / 2 0.5 / 1
	Pakistan	0 / 3 0 / 3	1 / 2 1 / 3	2 / 3 2 / 4	1.5 / 3 1 / 1		1 / 2 1 / 3	2.5 / 3 1 / 4	1 / 3 2 / 2	2 / 2 1 / 3
	South Africa	0 / 3 1 / 3	2 / 5 3 / 5	2 / 2 1.5 / 2	2 / 3 2.5 / 3	2 / 3 1 / 2		1.5 / 3 2 / 2	3 / 5 5 / 5	1 / 1 2 / 2
	Sri Lanka	0 / 3 2 / 3	0.5 / 3 1 / 3	1.5 / 3 2 / 3	0 / 2 2 / 3	3 / 4 0.5 / 3	0 / 2 1.5 / 3		0.5 / 2 3 / 3	2 / 3 3 / 3
	West Indies	0 / 5 2 / 4	1.5 / 5 4 / 6	0.5 / 3 3 / 5	0 / 2 0.5 / 2	0 / 2 2 / 3	0 / 5 2 / 5	0 / 3 1.5 / 2		1.5 / 2 2 / 2
	Zimbabwe	- 0 / 1	0.5 / 2 1 / 2	0 / 2 1 / 2	0.5 / 1 0 / 2	2 / 3 0 / 2	0 / 2 0 / 1	0 / 3 1 / 3	0 / 2 0.5 / 2

The current ranking table, Table F, appears below.

TABLE F: Final Rankings (as on Nov 21, 2002)

Country	Performance index (RBI)	Rank	Difference 3.11.02 to 21.11.02
Australia	75.95	1	+0.24
South Africa	56.42	2	+0.41
New Zealand	46.70	3	-0.16
England	45.97	4	+0.01
India	41.28	5	-0.03
Pakistan	40.79	6	+0.48
Sri Lanka	38.27	7	-1.03
West Indies	31.48	8	-0.02
Zimbabwe	16.03	9	-1.70

Table G shows that Zimbabwe are falling far too much. They are only half as good as the eighth-placed West Indies. The mighty Australians are almost five times better than Zimbabwe!

Finally, we look at scenarios in the Ashes series. Already down 1-0 in the series, the best scenario that we consider for England is a 3-0 defeat (that would mean two drawn matches! Unless the weather turns kind, one can't see even that happening).

TABLE G: AUSTRALIA VS ENGLAND: LIKELY SCENARIOS

Points break-up (1 point for win, 0.5 for draw, 0 for loss)	Aus's new index (RBI)	Eng's new index (RBI)
Aus: 5, Eng: 0 [Aus win series 5-0]	78.25	41.17
Aus: 4.5, Eng: 0.5 [Aus win series 4-0]	77.56	42.83
Aus: 4, Eng: 1 [Aus win series 3-0]	76.79	44.43

Which of these scenarios will please the Indian fan the most? He would like Australia to win 5-0 so that England drop to 41.17. Then even a drawn series in New Zealand (see our previous update) would suffice for India to take the fourth place ahead of England. If India manage to defeat New Zealand 2-0 (could that have happened if the top Kiwis players had opted out?), then they would be third in the rankings, behind only Australia and South Africa. But we don't think that's likely to happen.

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