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February 5, 2002

Australia edge past South Africa in one-day ratings

M J Manohar Rao and Srinivas Bhogle

We have a very surprising turnaround in the Rediff one-day ratings. Australia, who were 4.6 points behind South Africa before the VB Series started, are now a point ahead of their rivals! This also means that Australia (64.86) are now No.1 in the Rediff one-day ratings, with South Africa (63.77) at No.2.

This result must seem strange, and we have some explaining to do! The ongoing VB series, featuring Australia, South Africa and New Zealand, has seen Aus defeat SA 3-1, SA defeat NZ 3-1 and NZ, in turn, defeat Aus 3-1.

Australia defeated top-ranking South Africa convincingly to gain a better point advantage. South Africa, on the other hand, defeated New Zealand, with a much poorer ranking, to gain a smaller point advantage.

But this does not really explain the turnaround. The real reason is that when South Africa last played Australia in a triangular series in Australia (in 1997-98, with NZ again being the third team), South Africa had won 5 matches, and lost only 2 (SA won all the four league matches, and one of the three finals). This time, the 5 wins are down to 1, and the two defeats are up to 3. So, relatively speaking, SA in 2002 have fared far worse than in 1997-98.

What about New Zealand? They have gained a healthy 3.31 points, and moved from the 8th position to the 7th position (at 38.61) and are just a whisker away from England (38.84, still 6th) and two whiskers away from India (39.77, still 5th). If New Zealand manage to win the VB Series by defeating South Africa, they will climb to the 5th position, ahead of India and England. South Africa, however, will continue to be second even if they defeat NZ 2-0.

The tied 3-3 series between India and England was a "no event" as far as the Rediff one-day rating is concerned, because the previous (1993) scoreline was also 3-3. India have therefore lost a chance to consolidate their fifth position and could now be threatened by a resurgent New Zealand team.

Our "interim" Table A currently appears as shown below. We will have to do a final update of the table after the VB Series ends.

TABLE A: ODI SCORE CARD (as on February 3, 2002)

Aus Eng Ind NZ Pak RSA SL WI Zim

Australia H
A
N
6 / 8
3 / 6
0 / 1
4 / 4
4 / 8
0 / 1
1 / 5
6 / 7
0 / 1
5 / 6
5 / 6
2 / 3
4.5/7
1 / 3
1.5 / 2
4 / 5
3 / 6
0 / 1
7/ 7
3.5 / 7
1 / 1
4 / 4
3 / 3
1 / 1

England H
A
N
3 / 6
2 / 8
1 / 1
2 / 3
3 / 7
0 / 2
2 / 3
2.5 / 6
0 / 1
2 / 6
1 / 4
1 / 2
1 / 4
2 / 11
0 / 1
2 / 2
0 / 3
3 / 5
3 / 5
1 / 5
2 / 2
3 / 4
5 / 5
1 / 2

India H
A
N
4 / 8
0 / 4
1 / 1
4 / 7
1 / 3
2 / 2
4 / 6
2 / 5
1 / 3
1 / 9
1 / 3
0 / 1
4 / 9
3 / 11
1 / 1
3 / 4
2 / 7
0 / 3
5 / 6
1 / 4
2 / 3
6 / 7
4 / 5
2 / 2

New Zealand H
A
N
1 / 7
4 / 5
1 / 1
3.5 / 6
1 / 3
1 / 1
3 / 5
2 / 6
2 / 3
3 / 7
1 / 4
0 / 2
3 / 6
0 / 7
1 / 4
2 / 6
0 / 5
1 / 2
6 / 6
2 / 5
0 / 1
2 / 4
1 / 3
1 / 1

Pakistan H
A
N
1 / 6
1 / 6
1 / 3
3 / 4
4 / 6
1 / 2
2 / 3
8 / 9
1 / 1
3 / 4
4 / 7
2 / 2
0 / 1
0 / 4
1 / 2
0 / 4
4 / 7
2 / 3
1.5 / 4
4.5/10
2 / 2
2 / 3
2 / 2
2 / 2

South Africa H
A
N
2 / 3
2.5/7
0.5 / 2
9 / 11
3 / 4
1 / 1
8 / 11
5 / 9
0 / 1
7 / 7
3 / 6
3 / 4
4 / 4
1 / 1
1 / 2
7 / 9
1 / 5
1 / 1
8 / 10
5 / 7
1 / 1
2 / 3
3 / 3
1 / 1

Sri Lanka H
A
N
3 / 6
1 / 5
1 / 1
3 / 3
0 / 2
2 / 5
5 / 7
1 / 4
3 / 3
5 / 5
4 / 6
1 / 2
3 / 7
4 / 4
1 / 3
4 / 5
2 / 9
0 / 1
3 / 5
0 / 1
1 / 1
5 / 5
3 / 4
2 / 2

West Indies H
A
N
3.5 / 7
0 / 7
0 / 1
4 / 5
2 / 5
0 / 2
3 / 4
1 / 6
1 / 3
3 / 5
0 / 6
1 / 1
5.5/10
2.5 / 4
0 / 2
2 / 7
2 / 10
0 / 1
1 / 1
2 / 5
0 / 1
2 / 2
2 / 2
1 / 2

Zimbabwe H
A
N
0 / 3
0 / 4
0 / 1
0 / 5
1 / 4
1 / 2
1 / 5
1 / 7
0 / 2
2 / 3
2 / 4
0 / 1
0 / 2
1 / 3
0 / 2
0 / 3
1 / 3
0 / 1
1 / 4
0 / 5
0 / 2
0 / 2
0 / 2
1 / 2

We have received many suggestions on the RBI ODI scheme. The most popular suggestions are: (a) wins in the 'bigger' matches (e.g. finals and semi-finals) must be accorded a higher weight and (b) the margin of the victory must also be given due weightage. We have to address these issues. If we look at the 'margin of victory' issue, it would appear that every win which fetches a bonus point (i.e. 5 points in the table, instead of 4) should have an additional 25% 'weight'. Similar appropriate weight percentages could be envisaged for wins in the big matches. We will try some simulations and propose a more 'equitable' scheme well before the 2003 World Cup.

Because there are many more one-day matches than test matches, the ratings will be more topsy-turvy and, therefore, more exciting. The current ODI rankings are shown in Table F, below.

TABLE F: FINAL ODI RANKINGS (as on February 3, 2002)

Country Performance index (RBI) Difference
11.1.02 to 3.2.02 Rank

Australia 64.86 +1.79 1

South Africa 63.77 -3.90 2

Pakistan 52.77 +0.20 3

Sri Lanka 52.46 +0.04 4

India 39.77 -0.12 5

England 38.84 +0.17 6

New Zealand 38.61 +3.31 7

West Indies 36.29 -0.06 8

Zimbabwe 14.48 +0.24 9

If we take another look at Table F, we see that our results agree with our stipulated criteria: New Zealand have gained the most because of wins against the top two teams, South Africa have lost the most because they defeated lowly placed New Zealand but couldn't put it across the stronger Australian team. Australia and South Africa look set to continue their duels for the top two places, and Pakistan and Sri Lanka will similarly battle for the next two places. New Zealand appear to be steadily gaining. Alas, India continue to languish in their quagmire!

The Rediff Test cricket ratings will soon become "interactive"; cricket fans will be able to enter different combinations of points for home and away matches and see how the ratings change. Computer programs for this interactive service are being developed by Siba Prasad Satapathy and Manoj Kumar Choudhury of NAL in association with the Rediff team.

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