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April 10, 2002

Australia now way ahead

M J Manohar Rao and Srinivas Bhogle

When the Rediff ODI ratings were introduced in January 2002 South Africa were at the first place, marginally ahead of Australia. A few weeks later, Australia inched ahead. We thought that this would be the normal pattern: sometimes Australia, sometimes South Africa.

The first significant change occurred when Australia won three of their four matches against South Africa in the Aus-SA-NZ triangular played in Australia earlier this year. The bonus points rule, and some tactical playing by New Zealand, ensured Australia's (and Steve Waugh's) elimination. But, because they defeated the highly ranked South Africa so strongly, Australia moved comfortably to the top of the Rediff ODI ratings.

Now, after Australia's masterly performance to defeat South Africa 5-1 in South Africa, they have surged a mile ahead. We find that Australia (69.97) are now over 9 points ahead of South Africa (60.85). Based on this exceptional performance, we predict that Australia will stay at the top at least for a year. They must also appear to be overwhelming favourites to retain their World Cup title in South Africa next year.

The current scorecard for the major ODI playing teams is shown in Table A.

TABLE A: ODI SCORE CARD (as on April 10, 2002)

Aus Eng Ind NZ Pak RSA SL WI Zim

Australia H
A
N
6 / 8
3 / 6
0 / 1
4 / 4
4 / 8
0 / 1
1 / 5
6 / 7
0 / 1
5 / 6
5 / 6
2 / 3
4.5/7
5.5 / 7
1.5 / 2
4 / 5
3 / 6
0 / 1
7/ 7
3.5 / 7
1 / 1
4 / 4
3 / 3
1 / 1

England H
A
N
3 / 6
2 / 8
1 / 1
2 / 3
3 / 7
0 / 2
2 / 3
2 / 6
0 / 1
2 / 6
1 / 4
1 / 2
1 / 4
2 / 11
0 / 1
2 / 2
0 / 3
3 / 5
3 / 5
1 / 5
2 / 2
3 / 4
5 / 5
1 / 2

India H
A
N
4 / 8
0 / 4
1 / 1
4 / 7
1 / 3
2 / 2
4 / 6
2 / 5
1 / 3
1 / 9
1 / 3
0 / 1
4 / 9
3 / 11
1 / 1
3 / 4
2 / 7
0 / 3
5 / 6
1 / 4
2 / 3
5 / 7
4 / 5
2 / 2

New Zealand H
A
N
1 / 7
4 / 5
1 / 1
4 / 6
1 / 3
1 / 1
3 / 5
2 / 6
2 / 3
3 / 7
1 / 4
0 / 2
3 / 6
0 / 7
1 / 6
2 / 6
0 / 5
1 / 2
6 / 6
2 / 5
0 / 1
2 / 4
1 / 3
1 / 1

Pakistan H
A
N
1 / 6
1 / 6
1 / 3
3 / 4
4 / 6
1 / 2
2 / 3
8 / 9
1 / 1
3 / 4
4 / 7
2 / 2
0 / 1
0 / 4
1 / 2
0 / 4
4 / 7
2 / 3
1.5 / 4
4.5/10
2 / 3
2 / 3
2 / 2
2 / 2

South Africa H
A
N
1.5 / 7
2.5/7
0.5 / 2
9 / 11
3 / 4
1 / 1
8 / 11
5 / 9
0 / 1
7 / 7
3 / 6
5 / 6
4 / 4
1 / 1
1 / 2
7 / 9
1 / 5
1 / 1
8 / 10
5 / 7
1 / 1
2 / 3
3 / 3
1 / 1

Sri Lanka H
A
N
3 / 6
1 / 5
1 / 1
3 / 3
0 / 2
2 / 5
5 / 7
1 / 4
3 / 3
5 / 5
4 / 6
1 / 2
3 / 7
4 / 4
1 / 3
4 / 5
2 / 9
0 / 1
3 / 5
0 / 1
1 / 1
5 / 5
3 / 4
2 / 2

West Indies H
A
N
3.5 / 7
0 / 7
0 / 1
4 / 5
2 / 5
0 / 2
3 / 4
1 / 6
1 / 3
3 / 5
0 / 6
1 / 1
5.5/10
2.5 / 4
1 / 3
2 / 7
2 / 10
0 / 1
1 / 1
2 / 5
0 / 1
2 / 2
2 / 2
1 / 2

Zimbabwe H
A
N
0 / 3
0 / 4
0 / 1
0 / 5
1 / 4
1 / 2
1 / 5
2 / 7
0 / 2
2 / 3
2 / 4
0 / 1
0 / 2
1 / 3
0 / 2
0 / 3
1 / 3
0 / 1
1 / 4
0 / 5
0 / 2
0 / 2
0 / 2
1 / 2

The current ODI rankings are shown in Table F, below.

TABLE F: FINAL ODI RANKINGS (as on April 10, 2002)

Country Performance index (RBI) Difference
19.3.02 to 10.4.02 Rank

Australia 69.97 +4.95 1

South Africa 60.85 -2.90 2

Sri Lanka 52.74 +0.11 3

Pakistan 52.63 +0.19 4

India 39.59 +0.05 5

England 38.44 +0.08 6

New Zealand 38.32 +0.16 7

West Indies 36.27 +0.13 8

Zimbabwe 15.83 -0.13 9

An interesting little observation, looking at Table F, is that practically every team has gained marginally after the Australia-South Africa series. This is a consequence of South Africa's big fall which has diminished South Africa's "weight".

While admiring Australia's outstanding winning ability, we fear that they are making this rating game (which is otherwise such an enjoyable pastime) rather boring. There's going to be no contest for the coveted No. 1 spot for a long time to come!

The best that we can therefore do is to forget the invincible Australians and focus on the many exciting contests which will unfold for positions 2-5. Looking at Table F we find that the Sri Lankans (especially after beating Pakistan in their first Sharjah game) are consolidating their occupation of the third place. Pakistan too are firmly entrenched at the fourth place (and could become third if they win all their remaining games at Sharjah, including the final).

For Indian supporters, the ongoing Sharjah triangular tournament involving Pakistan, Sri Lanka and New Zealand is crucial. India are currently placed fifth and in no position to challenge Sri Lanka and Pakistan. But the real worry is how New Zealand will fare! By beating third-placed Sri Lanka in Sharjah in the second game, New Zealand are poised to clinch the fifth spot ahead of India. Our quick calculation indicates that if New Zealand win even one more game at Sharjah, they overtake India.

At this stage it looks as though the standings after Sharjah will be Aus (1), SA (2), SL (3), Pak (4), Ind (5), NZ (6), Eng (7), WI (8) and Zim (9). We are still hopeful that India will stay fifth because we don't see Sri Lanka losing twice to New Zealand and we don't think New Zealand can defeat Pakistan in Sharjah (defeating Pakistan in a ODI game at Sharjah is almost as difficult as defeating Australia in Australia in a test match). But there's little doubt that NZ is a team on the upswing both in tests and ODI's and currently looking better equipped than India. Now, should this please John Wright?

M J Manohar Rao is professor and director, Department of Economics, University of Mumbai, Mumbai; Srinivas Bhogle is scientist and head, Information Management Division, National Aerospace Laboratories, Bangalore.

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