How the rankings work?

ICC Test rankings

Test Updates:
March 20
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January 11
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ODI Updates:
March 20
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February 9
February 5
January 14

New Zealand's steady climb continues

When we started publishing the Rediff test ratings in November 2001, New Zealand were lying seventh and didn't appear capable of threatening even the sixth-placed India. Things have changed a lot five months later! New Zealand (44.99) are safely lodged at the fourth place, even threatening to overtake third-placed England (45.43) and are a good two points ahead of both Pakistan (42.35) and Sri Lanka (42.31). India (39.47) remain seventh, and should probably stay there unless they defeat West Indies by at least a margin of two tests in the forthcoming five-test series.

The current (as on April 3, 2002) home-away point tally of test playing teams is shown, below, in Table A.
-- How the rankings work...

TABLE A: Test Score Card (as on April 3, 2002)

		A W A Y
		Aus	Eng	Ind	NZ	Pak	RSA	SL	WI	Zim
H O M E	Australia		4 / 5 3.5 / 5	1 / 3 3 / 3	3 / 3 1.5 / 3	2 / 3 3 / 3	2 / 3 3 / 3	1 / 3 3 / 3	2 / 4 5 / 5	1 / 1 -
	England	1.5 / 5 1 / 5		1 / 3 2 / 3	1.5 / 3 1.5 / 4	2 / 3 1 / 2	2 / 5 3 / 5	2 / 3 0 / 1	2 / 6 3.5 / 5	1 / 2 1.5 / 2
	India	0 / 3 2 / 3	1 / 3 2 / 3		1 / 3 2 / 3	2 / 4 1 / 3	0.5 / 2 0 / 2	1 / 3 1.5 / 3	2 / 5 1.5 / 3	1 / 2 2 / 2
	New Zealand	1.5 / 3 0 / 3	2.5 / 4 1.5 / 3	1 / 3 2 / 3		1 / 2 1.5 / 3	0.5 / 3 1 / 3	1 / 3 2 / 2	0.5 / 2 2 / 2	2 / 2 0.5 / 1
	Pakistan	0 / 3 1 / 3	1 / 2 1 / 3	2 / 3 2 / 4	1.5 / 3 1 / 2		1 / 2 1 / 3	2.5 / 3 1 / 4	1 / 3 2 / 2	1.5 / 2 1 / 3
	South Africa	0 / 3 1 / 3	2 / 5 3 / 5	2 / 2 1.5 / 2	2 / 3 2.5 / 3	2 / 3 1 / 2		1.5 / 3 2.5 / 3	3 / 5 5 / 5	1 / 1 2 / 2
	Sri Lanka	0 / 3 2 / 3	1 / 1 1 / 3	1.5 / 3 2 / 3	0 / 2 2 / 3	3 / 4 0.5 / 3	0.5 / 3 1.5 / 3		0.5 / 2 3 / 3	2 / 3 3 / 3
	West Indies	0 / 5 2 / 4	1.5 / 5 4 / 6	1.5 / 3 3 / 5	0 / 2 1.5 / 2	0 / 2 2 / 3	0 / 5 2 / 5	0 / 3 1.5 / 2		1.5 / 2 2 / 2
	Zimbabwe	- 0 / 1	0.5 / 2 1 / 2	0 / 2 1 / 2	0.5 / 1 0 / 2	2 / 3 0.5 / 2	0 / 2 0 / 1	0 / 3 1 / 3	0 / 2 0.5 / 2

The corresponding ranking table, Table F, appears below.

TABLE F: Final Rankings (as on April 3, 2002)

Country	Performance index (RBI)	Rank	Difference 19.3.02 to 3.4.02
Australia	74.53	1	-0.03
South Africa	56.91	2	-0.13
England	45.43	3	-1.73
New Zealand	44.99	4	+2.22
Pakistan	42.35	5	+0.10
Sri Lanka	42.31	6	-0.24
India	39.47	7	-0.15
West Indies	34.84	8	-0.55
Zimbabwe	18.29	9	-0.09

With the India-West Indies series starting on 11 April 2002, there is great excitement at least in India. The series promises to be close and most observers quite fancy an Indian victory. In our last column, we had said that an outstanding performance could take India to the fourth place. New Zealand's big series win against England (it was big because when the two teams met last time NZ had lost 2-0 to England; so a 1-1 comeback against the third best test team translates into a big advantage) means that the best that India can hope for, in most realistic scenarios (see Table G, below), is a fifth place. If India fare only modestly well, they will remain where they are: at the seventh place!

TABLE G: INDIA VS WEST INDIES: ALL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

Points break-up (1 point for win, 0.5 for draw, 0 for loss)	India's new performance index (RBI)	India's new rank
India: 0, WI: 5	33.83	8
India: 0.5, WI: 4.5	35.34	8
India: 1, WI: 4	36.78	7
India: 1.5, WI: 3.5	38.16	7
India: 2, WI: 3	39.47	7
India: 2.5, WI: 2.5	40.71	7
India: 3, WI: 2	41.87	7
India: 3.5, WI: 1.5	42.97	5
India: 4, WI: 1	44.00	5
India: 4.5, WI: 0.5	44.96	5
India: 5, WI: 0	45.85	3

Table G indicates that India must (a) either win two and draw three or (b) win three, draw one and lose one to climb to the fifth place. Such a verdict appears possible given the teams' relative strengths. But is it probable?

M J Manohar Rao is professor and director, Department of Economics, University of Mumbai, Mumbai; Srinivas Bhogle is scientist and head, Information Management Division, National Aerospace Laboratories, Bangalore.