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'The market needs correction'Mumbai, August 19, 2003: 'Do not set price targets. Bull markets can surprise on the upside,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.CAkochar : Damaniji Good evening, Any good picks at this levels... Ramesh S Damani : Hello everyone. Thanks for joining. Let's start. probal : Sir what is your view on market today. why did textiles stock corrected so much, specially shree rajasthan syntex. Ramesh S Damani : Volumes were dull so no great shakes. pohangsteel : does jk bank make a good investmentat the current rate of215itstill trades at a pe of2.5and will have an eps of100 Ramesh S Damani : It does look attractive on that matrix. aneel : good evenin mr damani....i bot godrej consumer,bank of punjab on ur recommendation....hope it doesnt test our patience as in mcdowell.. Ramesh S Damani : Let's hope so. sudipto : sir do u still hold man industries, hpcl, supper spinning,south india bank, shree rajasthan sysntex,mahavir spinning,tisco, itc, eserver international Ramesh S Damani : Yes all except Man. pohangsteel : is the time ripe to exit all the pipe making companiesif steel is rising it will affect the end user like pipe manufactures or is the demand huge that they can offset raw mat cost by sheer volumes Ramesh S Damani : Not sure. Something to think about. Kavita1 : Sir I am ahving indian rayon of 128 which is 195 now. should I wait or switch it to any other textile (please suggest few) Ramesh S Damani : I would wait. It is going up due to its insurance business not textiles. aneel : business standard...chairman of ktk bank simply denied...but with the articles providin against 1% ownership will it b easy to takeover it.... Ramesh S Damani : It would be. pohangsteel : does arvind mills make a sound investment story considering the fact that denim prices have softened internationally Ramesh S Damani : That is what is tough about commodity companies. It is difficult to keep track of the global prices. aneel : wud not south india bank n bank of punjab be more potential to takeovers Ramesh S Damani : I think they would be sold to a strategic partner. Kavita1 : sir I sold sail. with avg of 45. what do you suggest me to enter. essar, sail or jindal steel. Ramesh S Damani : I would personally prefer Tisco. KR : Good Evening Sir, where do you see markets over a perod of 8-10 months from now and anything worth buying in your view at current levals? Ramesh S Damani : The market should remain in an uptrend. I think the rise is not a flash-in-the-pan. However watch the IPO market for signs of frenzy. CAkochar : Tisco with the price hike even consideriung a mere 20% profits by the price hike eps comes out as 50!! Do you think disounting at 10 multiples Tisco could recah 500?? Ramesh S Damani : Commodity stocks don't get that kind of discounting because the profits are cyclical and not steady. pohangsteel : mr chabria has completly denied mallyas claim of settling the mcdow-herbertson issue will this problem ever be solved Ramesh S Damani : Your guess is good as mine. sudipto : Sir can u please tell us the textile stocks u hold , currently...please as we will them follow u. Ramesh S Damani : Shree Raj Syntex, Zodiac, Mahavir, Vardhman, Super Spinning. However, these are just initial investments. AnandBhatt : Hello Sir,Tata Honeywell is one stock from your basket that has not moved up.I own it bought at 250-260 in the last 6 months.Since it has not gone up in this 1000 point rise,is it an opportunity since everything else has gone up so much?Should I add more ta this price? Ramesh S Damani : It has been disappointing to be honest. Tech stocks have generally been ignored by the market and the results have been bellow expectations. I don't think it is the right time to average. truly : Mr Damani - having never seen a bull market since i started off in stocks.. is it something to worry abt - this indiscriminate buying into steel stocks..with a big chance of all this coming crashing down ? Ramesh S Damani : These things go on in the market. The trick is to maintain your conviction and discipline in the stocks. SLInv : Did anything fresh come out of the Eserve AGM last month ? Ramesh S Damani : No CAkochar : ANy good picks Damanji like you gave last time? Ramesh S Damani : I recently bought some NALCO. It looks good on a chart. Roby 123 : Sir, I am eagerly awaiting your views on the UCO Bank IPO.. Ramesh S Damani : It will be well received but I have not liked the PSU banks other than SBI. AnandBhatt : Thanks,do you see any hope with the rupee problem?Its not too late the exit,if the future for TATA honey looks bleak.Please advise. Ramesh S Damani : It's not really that bleak. The company is doing well but the change is just incremental you would have to make up your mind about it. soorej : sir your i year target for zodiac,mcdowell,sundaram ,rajastan syntex Ramesh S Damani : I would avoid setting targets. sudipto : sir can u please explain what do u mean by " there are initial investments" regarding textile stocks....regards Ramesh S Damani : Not a core holding. Bought some to keep track of them. KR : Sir, TISCO @ 250--- BUY, SELL OR HOLD? Ramesh S Damani : I am still bullish on it. SPBagri : Ramesh, Hi, What is tyour take on Texmaco/Rallis/Jaiprakash Ramesh S Damani : Jaipraksh seems to be attracting attention. sureshmakhija : sir in business todya they r saying that moschip may be next infosys plz commonet Ramesh S Damani : That seems unlikely. Sunil : Sirji any good pick in banking sector. Ramesh S Damani : South India Bank, Karur, and Bank of Punjab. SBI still remains a favourite. SLInv : I averaged my holdings on Eserve, is it not such a good time now to do so ? Ramesh S Damani : Margins may be under pressure due to rise in rupee. Otherwise things are fine. KR : McDOWELL--- IF THE SALE INCREASES TO 2000 CRORES BY 2005 AND THE COMPANY IS TAKEN OVER AT 3 TIMES SALES... THE VALUE PER SHARE COMES OUT TO AROUND 1000 RUPESS!!!!! DO YOU THINK IT IS POSSIBLE.... I DO RESPECT YOUR VIEWS BUT STILL 1000 FROM 50 IS TOO MUCH... Ramesh S Damani : The key is Mr Mallya getting ready to unlock value. He is showing no respect for his shareholders or his company in the way the stock quotes in the exchanges. Hopefully he will wakeup and realise he has an obligation to the shareholders too. In any case event and time will force him to do so. That is my reading. SLInv : I bought SBI at 165 during 1999, should I still hold on for Rs 500 ? Ramesh S Damani : I would. newbieatstock : sir which are the good journals,magazine that give a good global propective for investors.. which ones should i star with. Ramesh S Damani : Financial Times, London and Forbes are good to start with. fanofrsd : Hello Sir ,This is my first communication to you but I have been following u a lot. Please tell about my investments Hacmillan India @236, McDowell @ 47, GEShipping @ 75. Can you also tell when should I exit. I am ready to wait for long term for good returns(6-12 months) Ramesh S Damani : I am bullish on all the counters. McDowell is only for patient people and not for those who want to see quarterly numbers. SLInv : I bought SAIL at Rs 6, I have a stop loss at Rs 39.50. Is it safe to do like this ? Ramesh S Damani : You have done a good trade. It makes sense. sureshmakhija : sir pl tell something abt moschip semi conductor in business today they are saying that its going to be next infosys Ramesh S Damani : They design chips. It is still a very young company and there is no evidence of greatness. KR : Mr Mallya gettingready to unlock value. He is showing no respect for hisshareholders or his co in theway the stock quotes in theexchanges. Hoepfully he wil wakeup and realise he has an obligationto shareholers too. In any caseevents and time will force him todo so. that is my reading--- are you trying to say that a possible price of around 1000 Rs. per share would lure him and would be a wake up call for him? Ramesh S Damani : He has promised to unlock value once the Herbertson deal is unlocked. Shinna : ANY GOOD BUY IDEAS YOU GOT RECENTLY Ramesh S Damani : Like I said earlier I bought NALCO. sureshmakhija : says, sir pl tell something about hpcl disinvestment is it going to be divest in this calender year Ramesh S Damani : I doubt if Mr Shourie knows that. It remains fluid. Kocharca : Others than ITES which sector you think would perform well for the next say 1-2 years? Ramesh S Damani : I think commodity and infrastructure will do well. pohangsteel : does gail continue to remain in your portfolioand would yu buy hllat188 Ramesh S Damani : GAIL - yes, HLL - not sure. KR : NALCO DISINVESTMENT is facing lot of troubles from unions and alluminium prices at LME doesnt seem moving TOO much (ALREADY HAD A GOOD RUN)... would it be safe to enter NALCO at these levals... you are a master at creating wealth but i we need a little conviction from you to follow you... regards Ramesh S Damani : I think aluminium prices are firm and the market is no longer treating these stocks as divestment players. On a chart it looks good. truly : You mentioned commodity & infrastructure stocks - does that include heavy engineering stocks like Thermax..they seem to have a full order book. Ramesh S Damani : I meant stocks like ABB, Ingersoll Rand. fanofrsd : Can you give me some vague idea on when to exit these stocks .My stocks were GEShipping , Mcdowell and Macmillan.Thanks Ramesh S Damani : Don't set price targets. Bull markets can surprise on the upside. aneel : how wud tea behave as a commodity n hence tea shares Ramesh S Damani : Tata Tea would be a good example and your thinking is correct. truly : Promoters are increasing stake in Himat.Seide. They shd know more abt the business & prospects than us.. Isnot insider buying a very positive signal ? Ramesh S Damani : Yes it is. It is a great company. AnandBhatt : Dear Sir,WHat do you advise doing at these levels in the market?Do you see a correction of few hundred points,Its been a totally vertical rise,has defied everyone.Would you Hold on and wait for a correction to buy in or is there anything special to buy at current rates. Ramesh S Damani : We are in a bull market that needs a correction. It will come. However, that dip should be used to buy stocks. We may be in a new bull market. KR : NALCO.... yes, alluminium prices are firm BUT so are copper prices... HINDALCO has taken over copper business of BIRLA group and stands to benefit from the rising copper prices too... till now i was thinking it a better bet than NALCO.... your veiws, please : -) Ramesh S Damani : Hindalco will do well. SLInv : One thing I must say. Despite your picks not shining in this market, you have truly remained loyal to your picks. I really think you are a very true and honest person. Thank you very much sir. Ramesh S Damani : Markets rotate in an out of fashion. If you start chasing the market you tend to make errors. KR : Can you give me some vague idea on when to exit these stocks .My stocks were GEShipping , Mcdowell and Macmillan.ThanksRamesh S Damani answers, dont set price targetts.bull markets can surprise on theupside --- ON THIS MATTER, I GOT A QUESTION FOR YOU SIR.... the other day you said you are a poor seller and normally dont sell unless something you didnt predicted happnes unfavourably.... BUT all of us cant do that... most of us want to book profits... and how to do that without having exit price target or even idea of it in the mind? Ramesh S Damani : If you want to be in investments you will have to learn to judge that. I first recommended Infosys at 600 cum 4 bonus. What sell price target should I have set? Good stocks should compound over time. Cyclical stocks you can trade. McMillan and McDowell should be compounders. ashes : do you recommend buy/sell/hold on Dredging corp.. i have purchased it @ 99/- Ramesh S Damani : Hold on. truly : I know you do not set targets..but dreaming is not out of scope i hope ...I think 1000 is not unrealistic for SBI considering the potential & fundamentals.. over a period of 1-2 years.. Agree with my dream ?? !!!! Ramesh S Damani : That would be wonderful. It may happen. I own it. pohangsteel : should one invest in himmat at the current price Ramesh S Damani : I would wait a while. SINGARAJ.TR : SIR.PLESE ANSWER THIS ONE.I AM HOLDING 5000 SHARES IN SPANCO.AND WHETHER AM I CONTINUE TO HOLD OR ADD SOME MORE? Ramesh S Damani : I have not finished working on it. truly : What is a "new bull market" sir ? Ramesh S Damani : 2000 was a bull market for tech stocks. New bull market means new price levels. Index should gain ground. KR : with the kind of potential MCdowell is holding and the kind of working MCmillan is having (50% margin and 50% growth rate) i do intend to hold it for long... but what about commodity stock like TISCO? do you have any targets in mind?? : -) Ramesh S Damani : McMillan has delivered 50-50 in first two quarters. I am sorry I still don't have any targets in mind for Tisco, GE. Sometimes the market will tip you but absolute value setting is dangerous. pohangsteel : the mafatlals failed to unlock value in std ind and nocil see what happened cant the same happen to mr mallya Ramesh S Damani : Of course it can. But the liquor business is a valuable business and has demand worldwide. vikas12 : WOULD U RECOMMEND SUNDARAM FINANCE NOW AND PLEASE ALOS TELL WHAT TO DO WITH HONEYWELL Ramesh S Damani : Yes. With Honeywell I have said, before the results were disappointing, you could book partial profits. SANU : SIR WHAT ABOUT SUNDARAM FINACE.CHOLAMANDALAM STILL CHEAPER THAN SUNDARAM Ramesh S Damani : I like the mix of Sundaram Business, Insurance, ITES and finance. manish : Hi Damaniji, Did check out about Sintex. It had three consecutive circuits in last three days with unusual volume. But Still has huuuge potential. Please comment. Ramesh S Damani : Market is in that kind of mode, stories spring up every day invest if you have conviction. SanjivJindal : sir i am a small investor. Can u answer my query about citi union bank and orchid chemical Ramesh S Damani : No view at the moment. Thanks for joining. See you next week. Bye |