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'Look at an ITES company'Mumbai, April 8, 2003: 'I am only trading in Hinduja TMT. Infotech should have a disappointing quarter,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.Anjali : Mr Ramesh !! How do you feel by getting that position in the society Ramesh S Damani : Hello everyone. Thanks for joining. Let's start.What position are you referring about? jjpandit : Dear sir good after noon,what positon one should take at current juncture what is your advice to put portfolio for one year which has not taken part of this current bounce since last couple of days? Ramesh S Damani : I think investors should allocate more money to equity. Ignore day to day price fluctuation and buy shares that can gross 20 per cent and give a yield of 3-4 per cent. shaileshbagri : Sir, are you expecting good results from the telecom sector? If yes, is Tata Telecom attractive or should wait for more fall as the stock is down from 210 last April. Technically the stock looks at bottoming out though. Ramesh S Damani : The stock looks attractive at current levels. I might reenter it soon. shaileshbagri : Steel is expected to show good results for the yr. Your pick - TISCO, Jindal Iron or SAIL at present levels? Ramesh S Damani : Clearly Tisco. MALIK : Sir, In Breweries sector ,Whether one should buy UB (Holding ) which is at Rs 18 or UB Breweries which is at Rs 80.Please aDVICE Ramesh S Damani : Both are attractive in their own right. UB beer has a market cap of Rs 120 crore. Scottish and Newcastle paid Rs 450 crore to get a 26 per cent stake implying a value of Rs 1800 crore. UB holdings has a book value of around 80 and a great prop. It is a good bet. I own both. vikas : You think Mcdowell and Macmillan has started moving finally? How is shaw wallace as there are rumors of foreign stake Ramesh S Damani : Shaw Wallace sale will happen. However, management has not been share holder friendly, so invest with caution. Mcmillan results indicate the worst is behind and the stock should improve. I was happy with the result and guidance. McDowell, be patient. It will take time. I own all three shares shaileshbagri : Indian Mkt. participants are blind followers of the US & European markets. The US mkt. rally might be on newsflow from Iraq but fundamentally still its very weak. How will Indian market react when actual discounting is done by US & European markets? Ramesh S Damani : Remember it is the marginal foreign institutional investor money that is moving our market. Retail investors have forgotten to take delivery. However, over time the fundamentals will triumph. globetrotter : How is Forune informatics for investment, few major funds have them in the portfolio Ramesh S Damani : I never liked the stock. Neelam : Whats wrong with BEL's market cap? Last week you said you would not buy it at this market cap?? Ramesh S Damani : Public sector stocks that are not going to be privatised rarely get a price earning. It is safe, but hard to see itdouble soon. Growth for 2004 should be 20-25 per cent. vikas : U think war fear ( unconventional means ) is over and we can overweight in equities Ramesh S Damani : It does seem so. anilgupta : ramesh bhai it looks that u have missed the banking stocks any call on banks Ramesh S Damani : That is correct. I own SBI, HDFC, Karur Vyasa among the biggies. baracuda : please answer neelams question if yu had said to buy bel we all could have made a clean 20%.also next year is election year and bel is going to get a huge order for voting machines Ramesh S Damani : I have held BEL for five years continously. However, remember it had gone from Rs 240 to Rs 170. That would have scared people. It is a good company, but at Rs 200, it is risky if they miss a quarter. As PSU, that is always posssible. vikas : which ONE will you choose in small scrips MAN / UB HOLDING / SOLECTRON Ramesh S Damani : UB holdings. Don't expect dividends from UB soon though. Solectron, I am finding is too illliquid. vikas : Sir, do you think Shaw Wallace is equally good as Mcdowell Ramesh S Damani : I would prefer Mcdowell, though I own both. vikas : Last week HCL T has got biggest BPO order for USD 160 M . What impact it will have on other BPO players mainly Honeywell , Infotech , E-serve Ramesh S Damani : It should spotlight the potential of the industry. However HCL Tech has a market cap of Rs 4000 crore- plus. Better way to play it. Maybe Tata Infotech which I own, which is tied up with Sitel. Honeywell and E-serve do different things. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Have you looked at Hughes Software recently post the announcement of $30 mn contract from Lucent. Business from its existing clients like Nokia, NEC and Johnson Controls have been robust offlate one hears that the Co. is also getting a lot of feelers for R&D orders from ALcatel and CISco. Youra take Ramesh S Damani : Management has consistently done a poor job in managing growth. Until we see some numbers, I would not make an investment call at the current time. I own some shares. Ahmedabadguy : Mr. Damani how is textile sector looking for as outperformer for this year?your view on Indian rayon around 80 rs. prise level?can cross its year high of 120 rs or looks unlikely? Ramesh S Damani : No particular feel of the textile sector. baracuda : do yu advice me to pick up 200shares of mcmillan so that i can av my price now that the worst is over Ramesh S Damani : I recently bought some Mcmillan to average. Maybe that helps. nokia : what are your views on HFCL at the current market price? Ramesh S Damani : Long history of being negative on it. jerry : Which sector could give 15 % per annum for the next 3 Years Mr Damani Ramesh S Damani : IT-enabled, Indian pharma and hopefully liquor. anilgupta : sir i have bought large quantity in low volume stocks in feb 2003 as now i want to take advantage of long term capital tax free income should i sell them same day and buy again is it correct?? Ramesh S Damani : Ask your CA. However, technically you are correct. priya : MR DAMANI, IS IT A GOOD TIME TO INVEST ON IT EDUCATION - NIIT/SSI/APTECH??? Ramesh S Damani : At some time in future, take a look at NIIT. Not the others. SUNIL : WHAT DO YOU SAY ABOUT SBI AT CURRENT LEVELS?? Ramesh S Damani : I would hold on to it. rahul : rahul says mr damani what u see in ril and etc networks any price u thing it will come Ramesh S Damani : I think it is fairly priced at current levels. Neelam : Tat Infotech is Rs. 153 down 5% today. Isnt it cheap at this price? Ramesh S Damani : It was at Rs 169, not Rs 153. Accumulate, but be patient SUNIL : WHY CEMENT STOCKS ARE RISING SINCE LAST FEW TRADING SESSIONS??? Ramesh S Damani : Not sure. Prices have been firm in Mumbai. Prasanth : Do you think it is risky to dabble in second line infotech stocks like Silverline, HFCL etc to make a quick profit in the short term? Ramesh S Damani : Yes it is. Neelam : Ramesh, please answer my question on Federal Bank. Thanks Ramesh S Damani : It is a cheap stock. However, I am not sure they will be competitive over time. rams : sir iam having SBI @274 and HDFC bank @240 iam ready to hold these shares for atleast 3 months what price will i get if i sell after 3 months Ramesh S Damani : If I could predict that, I would be God. SUNIL : WHAT LEVELS i SHOULD PUT A STOP LOSS FOR SBI?? Ramesh S Damani : Ask a technical guy for that. OsamaBinLaden : Mr. Ramesh Which is the only worrying factor for Indian Markets? Tell me I'll destroy that and boost Indian Mrkts? Is it Politicians? Ramesh S Damani : Generally reforms take years to get done. For eg VAT or privatisation. abp : i hold 2000 e serve puchased @ 40pershare; should i book profit?hv little knowledge of market & no time also; held it after reading ur column last year; pl guide thks! Ramesh S Damani : I would hold on to it. Clearly it has the potentail to become a large ITES player. vikas : Have u changed your views on Aftek , Mastek , BFL Ramesh S Damani : Not on Aftek, Mastek, BFL. I keep watching, but not buying. tushar : In which order questions are answered? I am waiting for answer sir??? Ramesh S Damani : In order of what is intersting. RDH1 : Warren Buffet recently said that he finds most stocks in the US overpriced and has not invested much last year. By that logic the FII's should be diverting more funds to markets like India in the coming months. Do you agree Ramesh S Damani : Buffett recently bought home builder Clayton Homes. Look for stocks with great value, good business and don't try to time the market. Neelam : If Saddam is hit and killed by a missile, that would bring at least 80 to 100 pts rise in the sensex!!! Ramesh S Damani : That has been discounted, I am afraid. kdedia : do u have any material orwebsite on value investing Ramesh S Damani : Go to motleyfool.com or some site like that. jpandit : sir what impact do u analyse regarding it&t has sell it's bpo division is it positve or nagative?pl Ramesh S Damani : It doesn't look too positive. They have little operating business left. dd : i hold some pre-ipo iflex share, and would like to diversify stake after lock-in expires, any recommendations Ramesh S Damani : Look at an ITES company. pradeep : Heelo RameshjiWhat is your view on IPCA LABIsit not highly underpriced Ramesh S Damani : It was at Rs 120 on Tuesday. Pramod : Good Aftn Sir,why is that evybdy start recommending Canara/PNB/BOB though they r at a high price compared to BOI/Union Bank..BOI/Union BAnk r also good scrips. Ramesh S Damani : Specualtive/FII interest and no holding. Buy UTI. tigershark : yu appear to be one of the few analysts who is really recomending liquor stocks.i have met a few analysts and they all say stay away there is no transperency in many of these cos and managements are suspiciouswhy do yu have such a contrarion view on liqour stocks Ramesh S Damani : Their criticism is correct. However, in the market you don't make money for popularily but buy buying cheap and selling dear.(eg PSU). Remember the industry is bound to be deregulated. In India, the population below 20 years is 50 crore people. That provides growth. The valuations are screaming. All the listed companies that control 70 per cent of the market don't have a market cap of $100 million. That is cheap. But be patient. rajesh : Sir, yr take on HPCL, how much time it will take for privitisation. Would like to guess the bid price . Do you think Exxon Mobile is also in the race for acquiring HPCL. Ramesh S Damani : Another six months maybe. It's too early to speculate on the price. vicky : SIR PEOPLE GIVE 35 PE TO ZEE AND FOR ETC ONLY 5 PE WHY Ramesh S Damani : Size of business, known quantity. AnandBhatt : Goodafternoon Sir,Any idea why BEL is rising lately? Ramesh S Damani : Guidance seems positive. Goofy : Should one enter the market at this moment when the outcome of the Iraq war is not very clear? Ramesh S Damani : It seems clear enough. Saddam has been beaten. Rajiv : I got TVSE at Rs. 56 should I add now? Is the merger going to help? Ramesh S Damani : It should. However, the counter seems sluggish. I still own it. tigershark : thanks for the ans on liqour yes i do agree with yu i have 1500of mcdow should i buy more and at what price should i buy ubbeer i missed it at 70 Ramesh S Damani : In the mid 70s it is great. I warn you again to be patient.You are not wrong because the price goes down. You are wrong because the facts are wrong or the reasoning are wrong. These stocks cannot go to zero. bagri : Ok from the chat it appears u are partial towards Mc. dowell/Tata Honeywell/ UB/ Tata infotech and in small stocks UB Holding/ Man Industries - other than this do u feel any good stock for making a quick bick. U will see that neither these stocks have fallen too much or not risen too much.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------You asked, what about geometric or hinduja TMT / Mc. milan --------------------------------------------------------------------------------You asked, what about goldian international/kale consultant/compudyne winfo etc./ max /apollo hospital Ramesh S Damani : Those stocks are core investments. I try and invest with a plan and a vision. It is hard, but I am trying to do it. Lynch : With Infosys result expected to be good and US forces marching into bagdad- still the market has fallen today- is it an ominous signal? Ramesh S Damani : Infy guidance is more important. Market did not fall only on war concerns. SUNIL : DAMANIJI, SO MANY GUYS ARE ASKING ABOUT BANKING STOCKS, I FEEL NOW WE SHOULD SELL BANKING STOCK.... WHAT DO YOU SAY??? Ramesh S Damani : While earnings will be good, this quarter I don't believe they have a long-term future. SBI, HDFC will eat them up over time. tony : Sir , would you still suggest a buy in Honeywell at the current level??? Ramesh S Damani : Yes I own it. Maganbhai : Damani should I buy Rum or Whisky tonight? Ramesh S Damani : Maybe Kingfisher Beer. AnandBhatt : , Is it worth investing in TVSE at these levels?Does the management have credibilty?It went to 140 last year.How is the guidance going forward? Ramesh S Damani : They are still struggling. Management is fine. rajesh : Sir, I am small investor. I am not trader . Please recemend a site for online trading. Which is good. Ramesh S Damani : Go with the big guys. icicidirect or hdfcsec. Rajiv : Do you see our old favourites like Engineers India, BEML and Concor starting to move again? Why is their movement so limited now? Ramesh S Damani : Maybe Concor. I own it. raju : Dear damaniji, can u tell me y mphasis is going down with each passing day when infact the company is doing well? Ramesh S Damani : I am not sure. However, insiders have been selling. tony : What period of time would you suggest a hold on Honeywel.I have benifitted a lot from your advice on the past , all tips except on Goldiam. Ramesh S Damani : For 1-2 years. Goldiam is selling below cash levels. Management is good and dividedn is good. Hold on. jpandit : sir i would like to learn equity analyse do u reccommnded any institution for short term course? Ramesh S Damani : Look at the BSE web site. They offer some courses. rajeev : sir why are u not answering my questionon global tele Ramesh S Damani : I would avoid it. mittal : sir my father is not allowing me to buy the liqur stocks as in our family no one drinks liqur what i should do? Ramesh S Damani : That is for you to decide. AnandBhatt : But Sir,is it worth taking a contrarian view like you are taking in Liquor?Buy a stock when its struggling and sell when its dear?I mean what is the outlook for the company?Is it positive?Pls advise. Ramesh S Damani : Look UB Beer has a market cap of Rs 115 crore. Mcdowell of Rs 150 crore. For that, you get 30-35 per cent of Indian beer and spirits market. This market has to grow. Dergulation will happen and in MCdowell a stake will be sold. That is plenty of triggers. Rajiv : Ramesh, are you doing the US trip again this year ?? Ramesh S Damani : No. AnandBhatt : Sir,is Tata Infotech also struggling? Ramesh S Damani : Yes, but new management is turning things around, I believe. npm : What do u mean by value unlocking in MCDOWELL? Ramesh S Damani : Sell to a strategic investor. vikas : 7TH TIME : HOW IS INFOTECH ENTER , HTMT Ramesh S Damani : Infotech should have a disappointing quarter. I am only trading in HTMT. Thanks for joining. See you all next week. raj : oye... sir has left... Ramesh S Damani : Bye guys. |