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'Market should hold around 5,550'Mumbai, February 3, 2004: 'The Interim Budget was good because of the capital gains exemption,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.chanchal : Rameshbhai, i cannot wait to seek your advice..you did indicate of probable reaction and LO behold IT DID COME NOW WHAT???????? Ramesh S Damani : Market should hold around 5550. It may test 5400. Market needs to consolidate currently. It should, however, resume its upward climb. Raja : Hello Mr. Guruji Damani Sir,Do you think the market will touch 5000 level? Is there any bad news about NEYVELI LIGNITE,BALAJI TELE,Please advice sir, I have bought these shares as per your advice. Ramesh S Damani : Hello everyone. Thanks for joining. Let's start. I like both these stocks at current prices especially Balaji. I own them. HiDamani : HI,I AM WILLING TO WAIT FOR 2 YEARS .HOWZ MY PORTFOLIO FROM THAT PERSPECTIVE ? ANY SUGGESTIONS/MODIFICATIONS?BALAJI (QUANTITY 1292)@107.13 ,BEML (QUANTITY 245)@233.9 , COLGATE PALMOLIVE (QUANTITY 326)@ 170.95 , GAIL (QUANTITY 135)@ 304.45 , HINDUJA TMT (QUANTITY 60)@365.03, ITC (QUANTITY 45)@1,109.35, MCDOWELL(QUANTITY 717)@ 61, MORGAN STANLEY (QUANTITY 1640)@18.16, STATE BANK (QUANTITY 112)@ 482.03 , UNITED BREWERIES AND HOLDINGS (QUANTITY 1200)@45.28 THANKS IN ADVANCE Ramesh S Damani : I am sorry I don't advice on individual portfolio. They look okay though. neeraj : How do you feel about PATNI @ 230YES /NO Ramesh S Damani : Not excited about it. AnandBhatt : Hello Sir,any idea why logix nicro has gone down to 27.Can one buy at current levels or wait?Please advise Ramesh S Damani : Generally with the market. They have another quarter of pain. First quarter FY-05 we should start seeing a turnaround. Alpesh : what is main reason of downfall 2day Ramesh S Damani : Mainly technical reasons. Raja : Sir, your vews about NEYVELI??I have bought it @ 75 today's price is 45. Please advice sir, shall i accumulate more now????????? Ramesh S Damani : It is a good conservative investment for people who have a view over 2-3 years. Meena : Your reaction to the interim budget and itseffects ? Ramesh S Damani : Good because of capital gains exemption. Nothing else to write about. VIKAS : WE could not chat last week therfore lot to discuss this time . How is E/SERVE and MACMILLAN RESULTS Ramesh S Damani : I was happy with both the results. MaCmillan ITES business is becoming a star. Publishing remains a drag. However, on balance it is a buy. rrd : Dear Sir,Can buy Zodiac clothing at present levels. also advise on Arnind Mills Ramesh S Damani : Zodiac looks okay to me. AnandBhatt : Sir,I my question on Logix is incomplete.I am just hearing Rahin Datta of Price Waterhouse from calcutta on CNBC.He is saying the interim budget on BPO is -ve and if there is no clarity on the issue,the business will go to other asain countries like Phillipines etc.Your comments Ramesh S Damani : The Philippines does not have the talent pool to take over India and China is a few years behind. This threat is a bit overstated. baracuda : nagarjuna and ivrcl can these be bought at current levels growth has been good infrastructure development story may only get bigger Ramesh S Damani : I have bought some Nagurjuna. The construction sector will do well. shwetha : sirrrrrrrrrr, are there interesting mid-caps which come to your mind now Ramesh S Damani : I would buy a basket of technology companies, which are around 40. I think they will do well. Eg (Kake, Logix Micro, Nelco and Crest Communication at lower levels). I own them all. cdate : dear sir, why is videocon international being priced so low. it has never gone above a PE of 3.4 ? results are good and company is commanding good market share? Ramesh S Damani : Management quality maybe not be what the market wants. admirer : Good evening Mr.Damani, do you see fresh FII happening around 5450/5500 levels? Will not Indian MFs keep booking profits steadily and also the significant market action from HNWIndividuals make it difficult for markets to go up substantially again? I mean 6500 levels? Ramesh S Damani : That is not the way the markets work. If you grow at 8 per cent money will flow in from all places. skk : what do u feel about goldiam / india glycol now should be a good hold Ramesh S Damani : Goldiam is a great bet at current levels. I own it. VIKAS : Interim budget says growth around 7.5 to 8%. Is it what u were looking forward. sHOULD STOCK MARKET REBOUND FROM THESE LEVELS Ramesh S Damani : 8% GDP growth is a magic elixir. That is what is exciting to me. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Is there seriousness to the BPO taxation issue with specific regard to E Serve HTMT etcPlease comment Ramesh S Damani : e-Serve already pays 30% tax rate. HTMT is an Indian company and exempted from tax in ITES. HiDamani : Do u think we should make exit at these levels and make entry when the market falls further ? Or should we remail invested? Ramesh S Damani : I would remain invested. tanni : NOW WHAT???your favourites BALAJI TELE, godrej ind etc...what should we do.. Ramesh S Damani : I like all of them. Godrej Ind had good results. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Did you get a chance to look at TV 18 results. Co. gave an annualized EPS of Rs 15.In the current year the spate of public issues will have only one medium of advertisement CNBC.Now they advertise more about other products and less about trend mill story board means they are making money.Also I was wondering that content for this channel is almost free. They have to get in some analysts like yourself and this is free. There is no Balaji here wanting a rise in rates. Co. also opening up a Hindi channel and work at the 30000 sq feet worli studio is in full swing. More the economy grows more they would advertise on broadcasting channels Your take. Ramesh S Damani : Your logic has been right on TV18. But Balaji already earns 90 crs PBT. TV 18 might earn it over 3years. Why should Balaji be available for 4 time PBT earnings. sushmita : , sir , i`m holding 2000 share of chowgule steamship @16.should i hold them till the mkt rise or sell it at no profit no loss Ramesh S Damani : Shipping industry is doing well. Saurabh : Sir i own Balaji tele @ 115 in heavy qty... pls advice what to do at this level ....plz Ramesh S Damani : I recently added at 80. The stock is too cheap in my view. AnandBhatt : Thanks Sir,would you consider Kale and Crest as an investment for the next 1 yr or as a trading call. Ramesh S Damani : I would look at crest in low 40's one of the 4 stocks should be a good ten bagger. All do interesting work in niche areas and are fighting to get ready for the future. They are young companies so you have to give them a rope. sushmita : sir ifci is trading at huge vol & its also going to be merged with pnb. whts ur opinion in this perticular share.? Ramesh S Damani : I am no admirer of IFCI. I would oppose merger with PNB. baracuda : did yu see the results of radico they have been good it is definately a better co than mcdowellradico delivers and mcdow squanders how long will this continue Ramesh S Damani : Really makes me depressed. However, sometimes patience pays big time. AnandBhatt : Sir, is Balaji good at 80 irrespective whether CAS gets implemented or not? Ramesh S Damani : Yes. Just do the numbers. It seems cheap to me. Concern is growth. We are getting yield to wait surely she will figure out how to grow. shweth : sirrrrrrrrrrrr, do u see interesting in the textile space as there are lots of news over there . Ramesh S Damani : Yes post 2005. Look at Zodiac clothing, which we bought earlier. BASANTMAHESHWARI : But e serve will not be paying that tax that is what I am made to believe.There is an arms length distance between the parent and the Indian subsi.In hind sight this may be good news for listed Indian BPO plays.WHat do you say Ramesh S Damani : Right now they are at 30%. So any saving will be a bonus. neeraj : I know my requisite may not be in line with this chat discussion, however as a fan of yours can you guide me on the same.I, a marketing Engineer in Electronics with my professional background of industrial products, Do you recommend a switch to FMCG sector as I personally find myself suitable for this sector change.What do you feel about my career decision as I can see bright future in this field. I respect you since I have made lots of money because of your recommendation. Ramesh S Damani : Thanks for the compliment. The sector of the future in India is the BPO/ITES sector. I would recommend a job in that sector. Doing industrial design back officework or the like. Lots of jobs at good pay will open up. baracuda : but balaji has not delivered on the results front also competion is heating up more retired actors and actresses are getting into the business of making serials sahara group has roped in aruna irani how does this auger well for balaji Ramesh S Damani : She dominates the business and at this market cap I am willing to take a risk on her. JAMUNA : SIR, I have bought NEUCLEUS SOFTWARE @ 150 as my friend adviced me to buy that? Is that a good scrip? Ramesh S Damani : I think they are doing good work in the banking space. sushmita : , sir any specific reason for opposing the merger with pnb? Ramesh S Damani : IFCI is a mis-managed corporation and certainly PNB is being pressurised to merge. baracuda : if yu are bullish on the liquor industry than yu should also bullish on praj industries 60%of indias liquor distillaries are built by praj Ramesh S Damani : That is correct and global operations are opening up for it. I am bullish on liquor from valuations, I don't believe new capacity is coming up. They will come for ethanol plants though. AnandBhatt : Sir,I have been watching Godrej Industries,It dropped to 50 in the previous fall when we had the Pnotes issue coming out and the market fell 30 pints in 2 days.In last weeks fall even though the market has fallen more,other stocks have corrected more,Godrekj is not correcting much.Its around 56,58.ANy reasons for it not correcting? Ramesh S Damani : It's pretty cheap, results have been good. shweth : sirrrrrrrrrrrr,is it wise to buy Madras Fertilizers now . what are the chances that it will be divested before elections .please advise me on this !!!! Ramesh S Damani : Doubtful before the elections. VIKAS : UB Holding has come down to same level from where it started and went to 68 . Will you add mjore . How is UB and Mcdowell after their results Ramesh S Damani : I have a good quantity so I am going to hold. AnandBhatt : Sir,youadvise buying a basket,you said you would look at Crest Comn in the low 40's.About the other 3,Kale,Nelco and Logix would you buy at current rates? Ramesh S Damani : Yes I would. skk : ramesh any call on ksb pump Ramesh S Damani : It looks good at these levels. sushmita : , sir can u plz advice some smallcaps for short-term investments Ramesh S Damani : See earlier question. BASANTMAHESHWARI : I Have a friend in the US who is a Doctor and helps local mutual funds and FII target micro market cap biotech Companies He is extremely bullish on Aurobindo and APollo.In aurobindo you might not be aware they have capacity to create sales of 6000 crs in 2006 and expected EPS is 70 they have a number of drugs lined up ofr approval.According to him this Co. is in the same league that Dr Reddy and Ranbaxy were 3 to 4 years ago.They manufacture in China (low cost advantage and sell in US also have Research scientists equal to Ran DR etc).Please comment Ramesh S Damani : Check out Aurbindo cash flow. Very unimpressive. baracuda : dregging corp and concor have both delivered great numbers both are monopolys in their field so dont yu feel both are great stocks to own dregging is cheap and the govt intends to make it cheaper concor maaybe a little expensive but fii love it Ramesh S Damani : These stocks were at 60 and 140. I have recommended these stocks in the past. They don't look that appealing as fresh buys. BASANTMAHESHWARI : At 700 crores does it make sense to buy TV today aaj tak is a front runner headlines(English channel) is a liability India today is one of the best magazines in its range and category.Its Price earning at 26 is quite high but the current year elections could give it a kicker. These days News channels have become like entertainment channels. Incidentally NDTV made a pvt placement to ICICI at a EV of 500 crs.Zee is astronomical at 6000+crs Also more the economy grows more they would advertise on broadcasting channels Ramesh S Damani : I am generally bullish on entertainment media companies. baracuda : thanks for the answer on praj yes gasohol will open big business for them provided crude stays above25$ a barrel they have also come up with an additional crop called sweet sogrhum which can be used in the period when cane is in short supply,appears to be a good co that has just started to grow Ramesh S Damani : Yes. Keep an eye on it. dineshsaj : sir plz i am waiting for ur reply i have ongc in heavey aty at 950 levels , and i hold gail heavy qty too at 300 level plz advice me what to do Ramesh S Damani : I am not bullish on ONGC and GAIL from your price levels. I own GAIL also. shweth : SIRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR,GOLDIAM IS NEITHER MOVING UP NOR COMING DOWN. IS THERE ANY RESISTANCE FOR THAT STOCK TO GO BEYOND . THERE ARE MANY SOPS FOR THAT INDUSTRY . WHAT'S HAPPENING SIR THERE . Ramesh S Damani : They are doing well, last results were good. sushmita : sir any advice on parekh platinum..as gold is doing well why is this not doing well. Ramesh S Damani : Have not followed it. skk : ramesh it means hinduja , tata infotech and e-serve is a good buy but at what levels Ramesh S Damani : At current levels. HiDamani : I guess the best bet in current scenario is Goldiam from 6 months perspective. Am I correct ? Ramesh S Damani : It looks safe to me. AnandBhatt : Sir,will the rising rupee be a concern for KAle,Crest,Nalco and Logix?Will it put pressure on margins like for Eserve and other TECH cos?Thanks. Ramesh S Damani : Not at these valuations. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Titan has been the sourcing story in machining and I read a report that Hilfinger has identified Titan as an outsourcing base in India.Tanishq is generating 17 to 18% annual growth and you would be surprised to note that jewelery contributes about 43% of sales. Co. is also the service center for Nolia phones and I guess Titan has a watch suitable for the pocket of all Sonata to the Edge. Debt levels are very high and Rights issue is bad EPS at 6 is low. Is it worth a plunge at 500 crores. Booming Jewellery exports is another kicker.What do you say? Ramesh S Damani : I would follow the story, over time and after a right issue they will do well. VIKAS : OUT OF 4 STOCKS ( KALE , LOGIX , NELCO AND CREST ) IF U HAVE TO BUY ONE WHICH ONE WILL U GO FOR Ramesh S Damani : That would be the wrong way to look at. Basket would give you some safety. These are young companies and lot can go wrong. channki : sir RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA HAS BOUGHT praj AT 105/ SHOULD WE NOW BUY ITAS WE HAVE LOSS IN MANY STOCKS IN THE CORRECTION... Ramesh S Damani : That is what for you to decide. admirer : Mr.Damani, sorry to bug you on McDowell; my exposure, though may not be comparable to yours, makes me worried-UB and McDowell may perhaps always be run to maximise wealth for their managements and not for shareholders and the fringe shareholders will perhaps benefit only when they trade and not invest. I mean there is no financial challenge to their ownership in terms of a take over threat and why should they bother? Kindly correct me if I am awfully wrong in my assessment on the management intentions. Ramesh S Damani : That is the problem with these companies. Management has to change, or some one will write 25 per cent of the equity and make life miserable. These changes will occur over time so you will have to be patient and careful. dineshsaj : sir can u tell me abt rcf i hold 3500 shares at 65 can u plz tell me the future of these stocks Ramesh S Damani : With Reliance interested in it, it will get privatised quickly. baracuda : if i want to paticipate in the telecom revolution that is happening in this country then what stock do i buy do i buy reliance or do i go for a more focussed player like bharti who has the backing of singtel Ramesh S Damani : I would prefer Bharti. BASANTMAHESHWARI : I want you to take this one.Whatdo you feel whether CAs will happen or not in the next 6 months. Ramesh S Damani : It will take about one year. sushmita : , thanks a lot sir for replying so many ques .the last one is whats your view on kotak mahindra.should i sell them at current mkt price or hold them. Ramesh S Damani : I would hold. rao : ramesh, don't u think its easy to be an expert while market travels from 2828 to 6250 ? Ramesh S Damani : Yes. Everyone is a genius in a bull market. It is during corrections that your conviction and patience is tested. BASANTMAHESHWARI : And if CAS happens your picks would include TV 18,HTMT Balaji,Tv Today not in that order or any reservations Ramesh S Damani : Not in that order. ROBERTDE : sir, where do you think this correction will stabalise Ramesh S Damani : Market should stabilise soon. Thanks for joining. See you next week. |