The prices of these commodities will rise

The southwest monsoon in 2012 might have left Indian shores a couple of months back after having a rather uneven run during the four-month season, but its after-effect in pushing up prices of onion , edible oils , pulses , potatoes and banana is likely to be felt all year long.

According to an assessment made by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER ), under the guidance of the Union ministry of agriculture, the deficient monsoon in the early half of the southwest monsoon season this year could have an adverse impact on the production of onions, potatoes and banana.

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Demand pressure would be more on available supplies of edible oils and pulses, the report added.

It said potato production was expected to register a growth of five-seven per cent in 2012-13, well below the trend growth of about nine per cent in the recent years.

"Taking into view factors like the negative impact of below normal rains in some major potato growing parts of India which could be negated by high prices during planting, potato output growth in 2012-13 is expected to be five-seven per cent over the previous year at 44.6-45.6 million tonnes (mt)," it said.

India's annual potato production rose by almost 9.4 per cent between 2005-06 and 2011-12.

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On bananas, the NCAER report said production in 2012-13 was not expected to rise as compared to 2011-12, which could have an adverse impact on prices as domestic consumption was expected to rise on account of increase in population and more importantly from increased per capita demand.

"The overall wholesale price index (WPI) for banana did not see the usual decline in the summer months of May and June this year, reflecting the production conditions and if the decline in September-November there could be some relief to consumers," the report said. India, the world's largest producer of bananas, cultivates around 30 mt of banana annually.

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The report, "Quarterly Agricultural Outlook Report July-September 2012", has been prepared under the guidance of Union Department of Agriculture and eminent agricultural economists like Ashok Gulati and Mahendra Dev.

On onion, the report said low rainfall in Maharashtra and Karnataka during the monsoon season, which account for almost 50 per cent of the total onion produced in the country, could pull down overall production by at least 20 per cent in 2012-13.

As compared to the harvest of 15.7 mt in 2011-12, overall output is expected to be around 13.6 mt in 2012-13 as early and late kharif crop that accounts for 40 per cent of the total onion production is expected to be impacted due to uneven rains this year, the report said.

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The fourth major commodity which is expected to feel the pinch of uncertain initial rains this year will be pulses.

According to the report, production of kharif pulses is expected to be around 15 per cent less than last year at 5.26 mt and assuming a normal rabi pulses output of 11.5 mt, total pulses production in 2012-13 would be 17 mt, 200,000 tonnes less than last year.

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In edible oils, the report pegs the output decline in line with the first advanced estimate of the department of agriculture.

It said overall kharif oilseeds production in 2012-13 is expected to be around 2 mt less than the production in 2011-12.

"A favourable output in the rabi season might offset some of the loss, but edible oil imports will rise in 2012-13," the report said. This could potentially have an inflationary impact as India imports more than half of annual edible oil demand.