August was a month of agony for investors as they lost more than Rs 1 crore (Rs 10 million) in every second of trade, on an average, taking the total losses for the market to over Rs 5.5 lakh crore.
It was also the worst month for investors since January 2011, when the average loss per second of trade was about Rs 1.5 crore (Rs 15 million).
The benchmark index lost over 1,500 points in the entire month, while the investor wealth plummeted by Rs 555,650 crore (Rs 5,556.50 billion) -- the biggest monthly loss since January 2011 when the market had lost little over Rs 700,000 crore (Rs 7,000 billion).
Amid slowing growth and global uncertainties, here are the top recommendations of leading research houses -- Edelweiss Research, ENAM Securities, Macquarie Research and Motilal Oswal Securities.
All FY12 & FY13 figures are estimates.
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
Strong revenue growth guidance of 25% for FY12
Order inflow growth guidance of 15%
Potential write-back of provisions created for Delhi airport in FY11 to limit margin fall
Downside risk to earnings limited
Key risks
Macro economic uncertainties may cap orders
Higher raw input costs could hurt margins
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
Market leader in the demand-inelastic cigarettes business
High pricing power, hence less impacted by input cost inflation
FMCG business closing in towards breakeven
Other businesses viz, agri, paperboard & packaging and hotels growing strong
Key risks
Trading at higher end of historical valuations
A mid-year excise duty hike could hurt volumes
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
Strong pipeline in the US business; 76 ANDAs pending with US FDA for approval
Robust growth in Russia continues on the back of strong traction in the OTC business
Ten product launches in FY12
Strong growth in API business
Key risks
Muted India sales in some products
Difficult pricing scenario hits revenue growth in Germany
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
Consistent track record of strong earnings
High asset quality, including lowest risk on asset quality due to small exposure to stress sectors
Robust borrowing mix with high CASA of 49% to support margins
High provision coverage ratio of 83% (including floating provision it is at over 125 %)
Key risks
Moderating loan growth and NIMs in a high interest rate scenario Benign retail asset quality
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
Likely to derive significant value from its exploration activities in Brazil over the next two years
Ramp, up in Bina refinery to boost GRMs
Key beneficiary of cooling crude oil prices as well as fuel price deregulation
Trading at attractive valuations
Key risk
Uncertainty regarding subsidy burden a major overhang on the stock
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
Key beneficiary of the structural coal deficit in India
Washed coal volumes will surge to 150 million tonnes (25% of total) by FY17 spurring margins
Average realisation for CIL is still 50% lower than import parity price of coal
Largest coal reserves in the world of 22 bln tonnes
Key risks
Plan of 26% profit sharing for local development
Inability to get environmental clearances or land
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
Company will be net cash positive in FY12, led by huge operating cash flow and proceeds from BP
E&P business not fullly reflecting in valuations
Doubling of petchem capacity in the next 2-3 years will boost its earnings significantly
Key risks
Higher cash allocation to unrelated areas
Slowdown in global petrochemicals and refining businesses
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
India, which is 61% of PBIT, continues to grow at a fast pace
High growth and potential in the smart phone and iPad segments
Strategic initiative to improve the working capital cycle
Value unlocking from business such as NBFC and benefits from GST implementation
Key risks
Further interest rate hikes
Currency fluctuation
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
The bank's loan book is expected to grow at a brisk pace of 25% plus in FY11-13
Stable margins and healthy asset quality
Growing franchise, new products will further drive retail fee income
As it delivers consistent earnings, valuation discount of 40% with HDFC Bank will narrow
Key risks
Deterioration of macro environment can result in higher slippages and slow down in business
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
Current valuations only reflect the operational power and steel assets
Power expansion by 4,400 Mw, foreign coal and iron ore assets not fully reflected in valuations
Cost of power & steel production among lowest
Earnings to grow at about 22% annually, backed by volume expansion
Key risks
Final outcome of draft mining bill
Decline in global commodity prices
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
Niche product launch to drive growth in the US market by 16 % during FY11-13
With an increase in market share, domestic business to grow at 16% during FY11-13
Valuations are lower compared to peers
Upside from other products in the pipeline
Key risk
Lost Abbott and Sanofi cases, liable to pay $16 million, though it will appeal in higher court
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
Company is the best play on emerging markets
Supply agreements with 22 US players for 118 products to drive growth in the medium term
Commencement of exports of CFC-free inhalers to Europe will be a key positive.
Potential MNC contracts are likely to improve earnings for FY12/13.
Key risks
New pharma policy creates uncertainty over pricing
NPPA liability of Rs 1,200 crore (if it materialises)
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
Growing trend among consumers to allocate more income to consumption, lifestyle products
Allowing FDI in multi-brand retailing
The company plans to monetise its non-retail assets over next 12-18 months and reduce debt
Valuation of investment in subsidiaries is worth Rs 3,000-4,000 crore
Key risks
Higher inventory days remain
Slow revenue growth due to rollout delays
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
MIS business, which is 50% of sales, will grow
30% annually over the next five years
Growth is backed by expansion in new states, higher farm income and government initiatives
Improvement in capital efficiency
Stock trading at 6-year median level at EV/Ebitda
Key risk
Capital allocation to non-MIS business
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
Firm growth in all its major categories
Soft commodity prices and product price hike to add to margins
Earnings surprise could come from Darling acquisition
Earnings growth of 21 per cent over the next two years
Key risks
Rising competition in key segments
Sharp rise in prices of inputs
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
Turning point for Indian telecom industry led by improvement in rates
Rate hikes should lead to gradual improvement in voice revenue per minute (RPM) and margins
3G services will also add 3-5% to RPM by FY13
Its African business and improving cash flows augur well and will boost earnings in coming years
Key risks
Any move to reverse rate hike will hit profits
Trai recommendations on spectrum
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
Growth visibility supported by strong volumes
Better return ratios, good dividend payout and attractive valuations
Better revenue mix will help sustain margins
b>Focus on leading brands, drive to grow exports and ramp up capacity
Key risks
Increasing competition
Rise in commodity prices could hurt margins
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
M&M dominates the domestic tractors market enabling it to capture rising rural demand
Enjoys good pricing power in tractors & UVs
The launch of its sub-tonne Maxximo and Gio to lead incremental volume growth
Long-term gains from Ssangyong Motors buy
Key risks
Higher duties on diesel vehicles would impact
M&M, as its entire portfolio is diesel-based
Higher interest rates may also impact demand
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
Strong business model and attractive valuations
Cash flows are expected to grow, driven by volume growth and better margins
Projects in Jamshedpur to expand capacity from 6.8 million tonnes to 10 million tonnes moving fast
Tata Steel Europe (TSE) to come out stronger after its recent restructuring at Scunthrope
Room for TSE to improve productivity
Key risks
Demand scenario in Europe
Lower steel prices could impact earnings
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20 stocks you can gain from
Positives
With interest rates expected to ease, SBI should do well with better loan growth
It has been able to protect its margins well
Even if there are concerns over asset quality, provisioning coverage is near mandated levels
Market leader trading at attractive valuations
Key risks
Higher interest rates
Tightness in the G-sec yields
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