RIL has potential to be a $100 bn company

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) can potentially become a $100 billion company by 2017 from its current market capitalisation (m-cap) of less than $47 billion, Goldman Sachs said in a report on Thursday.

For its m-cap to more than double, RIL needs government nod for nearly doubling of its gas price of $8 per million British thermal unit together with approvals for oil and gas field investments and completion of petrochemical expansions, Goldman said in its report 'Core capex to lift returns, rerate stock; roadmap to $100 billion market cap'.

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The roadmap for $100 billion mark includes RIL "restricting overseas inorganic growth to core business segments only and maintaining focus on synergies and returns," it said.

"We believe RIL's medium to long-term growth potential is not being reflected by the market due to its focus on nearer-term concerns over growth, returns and cyclical weakness," Goldman said.

"Current share price is giving little credit to management for refocusing investment in core activities and its potential impact on cash returns, in our view," it added.

Shares of RIL, which has recently been affected by the declining output at its flagship KG-D6 fields where production has dipped less than halved to 29 million standard cubic meters per day, gained 2.04 per cent to close at Rs 815.05 on the BSE.

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Goldman valued RIL's oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) business at $14 billion, shale gas venture at $8 billion, refining at $19 billion, chemicals at $24 billion, cash and treasury at $18 billion, and telecom and retail business at $6 billion each.

It said natural gas price hike announcement by the government will bring back E&P interest and progress on planned core capex would reignite investor interest in RIL.

Also, completion of the $3 billion petrochemical capacity expansions, $5 billion refinery off gas cracker (ROGC) project and $4 billion petcoke gasification project by FY16 would be the main drivers.

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Goldman estimated that gas production would ramp-up to 50 mmscmd by FY17 when newer fields are brought into production.

Among the new businesses, it predicted break-even of retail and telecom ventures by FY16. RIL's shale gas projects in US would give an operating profit of $1.3 billion in FY17 against $200 million in FY12.

"We estimate the stock could have potential upside of 17 per cent over the next 12 months and +57 per cent variance over the next two years. Over the next four years we foresee a variance of +90 per cent, with a potential blue-sky market capitalisation of $112 billion in FY17 if RIL progresses successfully along the roadmap," Goldman said.