« Back to article | Print this article |
Citi recently published its 48-page "Global Economic Outlook and Strategy" report, which provides up-to-date commentary and forecasts for the major economies covered by the bank's army of economists'.
The team breaks down what's going on in each economy, and gives GDP growth forecasts through 2016.
Let's take a look at how India and world's major economies will perform in the next four years.
Click NEXT to see how India's economy will perform...India
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 6.2 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 6.9 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 7.3 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 7.4 per cent
India's economy will chug along, gaining momentum towards the end of 2014.
Click NEXT to see how China's economy will perform...
China
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 7.8 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 7.3 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 7.0 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 7.5 per cent
A declining working age will put downwards pressure on growth, as it will have profound impacts on labour costs and supply in the long run.
Click NEXT to see how the United States's economy will perform...
The United States
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 1.9 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 3.1 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 3.5 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 4.0 per cent
Slow but steady growth will mean that inflation will remain stable.
Click NEXT to see how the United Kingdom's economy will perform...
The United Kingdom
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 0.4 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 0.7 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 1.3 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.5 per cent
The economy faces persistent headwinds from private deleveraging, poor credit availability, structural export weakness and the EMU crisis, while fiscal drag is increasing this year, says Citi.
Click NEXT to see rest of the countries...
Canada
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 1.8 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 2.7 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 3.2 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 3.3 per cent
Weak global demand and competition are putting a damper on exports, and housing moderation and fiscal consolidation are capping domestic demand.
Click NEXT to read more...
Mexico
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 3.6 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 3.8 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 4 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 3.8 per cent
Growth will be dependent on how well Mexico's Congress implements structural reforms, which may materialise in the second half of 2013.
Click NEXT to read more...
Brazil
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 3.1 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 4.2 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 3.5 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 3.5 per cent
Power rationing is putting an upwards pressure on inflation, and fiscal policy measures are proving to be ineffective.
Click NEXT to read more...
Argentina
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 3.0 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 3.0 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 2.0 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: Minus 2.0 per cent
Citi says that even though real GDP growth fell in 2012, compared to 2011 (based on an in-house real GDP estimator), growth will likely pick up in 2013.
Click NEXT to read more...
Venezuela
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 2.0 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 2.0 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 3.1 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 2.5 per cent
Required economic measures will not take place until this uncertainty is resolved, and inflation will return to the 25 per cent mark, says Citi.
Click NEXT to read more...
Germany
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 0.5 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 0.5 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 1.0 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 2.3 per cent
The economy is likely to benefit from a modest recovery in exports and limited financial easing. This year is an election year, and Citi expects that Angela Merkel will remain Chancellor, but with a different coalition partner.
Click NEXT to read more...
France
GDP growth forecast in 2013: Minus 0.2 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 0.2 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 1.0 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.5 per cent
Citi says France's economy has seen slight cyclical deterioration in the last quarter.
Click NEXT to read more...
Italy
GDP growth forecast in 2013: Minus 1.4 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: Minus 1.4 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 0.3 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 0.2 per cent
Elections uncertainty will weigh on investment decisions, and it's quite likely that Italy will need external financial assistance within the year.
Click NEXT to read more...
Spain
GDP growth forecast in 2013: Minus 2.2 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: Minus 2.0 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 0.6 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.2 per cent
Banks will likely need to recapitalise, thanks to rising unemployment and non-performing loans. Debt restructuring is inevitable.
Click NEXT to read more...
Greece
GDP growth forecast in 2013: Minus 6.5 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: Minus 11.5 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 3.6 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.6 per cent
Only a major write-off in the euro area would make Greece's debt sustainable. Fiscal tightening will cost Greece around five per cent in GDP in 2013, and 2.2 per cent in 2014.
Click NEXT to read more...
Ireland
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 0.5 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 1.5 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 0.9 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.6 per cent
Upwards revisions to the first three quarters indicate that Ireland's not do quite so badly. Ireland too will require some form of debt restructuring.
Click NEXT to read more...
Portugal
GDP growth forecast in 2013: Minus 3.7 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: Minus 2.8 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: Minus 0.3 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 0.9 per cent
Portugal will need additional bailout funds after the current programme ends in mid-2014, says Citi.
Click NEXT to read more...
The Netherlands
GDP growth forecast in 2013: Minus 0.9 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 0.3 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 1.0 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.2 per cent
Citi says the hike in VAT in October caused the Netherlands to go back into recession, and that the rising unemployment and falling home prices aren't helping any.
Click NEXT to read more...
Belgium
GDP growth forecast in 2013: Minus 0.3 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 0.3 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 1.2 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.5 per cent
Citi says the Belgium economy probably experienced a double dip in the second half of 2012, and that the economy will continue to contract through 2013.
Click NEXT to read more...
Switzerland
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 1.4 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 1.2 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 1.3 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.3 per cent
Citi says Swiss GDP growth will remain resilient, beating averages.
Click NEXT to read more...
Sweden
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 1.0 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 2.5 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 2.6 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 2.8 per cent
Domestic demand will remain weak, as consumers seem reluctant to spend despite sound household finances.
Click NEXT to read more...
Denmark
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 0.9 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 1.8 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 1.8 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.9 per cent
Large pent-up household demand, public sector consumption and investment will revive the Danish economy.
Click NEXT to read more...
Norway
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 3.1 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 2.7 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 2.7 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 2.9 per cent
Despite headwinds from a slowing global economy, Norway's high oil receipts are cushioning it from recession.
Click NEXT to read more...
Russia
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 3.0 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 3.7 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 3.3 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 3.3 per cent
Growth will remain subdued, according to Citi, thanks to slowing retail sales high inflation.
Click NEXT to read more...
Poland
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 1.3 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 2.8 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 3.3 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 3.3 per cent
Weakening economic activity and slowing growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 caused Citi to cut GDP estimates by 0.3 per cent.
Click NEXT to read more...
Turkey
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 4.0 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 4.3 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 4.6 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 4.5 per cent
The overall growth picture for Turkey remains mixed.
Click NEXT to read more...
Japan
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 1.3 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 1.2 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 1.5 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 1.2 per cent
Citi notes that the depreciation of the Yen combined with the recently announced economic stimulus package concentrated on public works spending will likely increase GDP growth by an additional 0.6 per cent in 2013.
Click NEXT to read more...
South Korea
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 3.2 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 4.1 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 4.3 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 4.2 per cent
Citi cut growth estimates for Korea by 0.2 per cent for 2013, because of slower-than-expected growth momentum in the fourth quarter of 2012, which was due to sluggish exports and investments.
Click NEXT to read more...
Indonesia
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 6.1 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 6.3 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 6.5 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 6.5 per cent
Rebounding coal and palm oil prices, which are good for Indonesia's economy, were more than offset by weakening oil and gas prices.
Click NEXT to read more...
Australia
GDP growth forecast in 2013: 2.4 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2014: 3.0 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2015: 3.5 per cent
GDP growth forecast in 2016: 3.6 per cent
Resilient commodity prices combined will Chinese growth will boost Australia's economy.