When the full Planning Commission meets later this week, its chairman the prime minister - is likely to be presented with two scenarios for India's 12th five-year plan (2012-17).The first scenario is based on a percentage point improvement in the overall growth rate of the economy in the 12th plan compared to the 11th five-year plan (2007-12).
Against the performance of 8.1 per cent in the 11th plan period, the first scenario would seek a 9 per cent growth rate in the 12th plan.
The second scenario would be more ambitious and seek a 10 per cent growth rate.
However, attaining either target will require considerable homework by the Indian government and business.
It has been found during the 11th plan period that whenever economic growth accelerates beyond 8 per cent, inflationary pressures seem to develop owing to a variety of supply-side constraints.
Though such structural inflation can act as an incentive for new investment which would, in turn, ease supply-side pressures, a government in a democracy must also budget for social and political pressures arising from such inflation.
Hence, pursuing non-inflationary, or low-inflation, growth requires that excessive pressure not be exerted on the system.
Taking growth forward in a socially-inclusive manner requires careful calibration of supply and demand.
Thus, those who plan for 10 per cent growth must also plan for policies that will, in fact, ease the supply-side constraints on growth and avoid inflationary pressures.
At a time when the Indian economy appears to be facing the prospect of "stagflation" - with deceleration of industrial growth and renewed concerns about inflation - a government that plans for double-digit
national income growth is either brave or foolhardy.
On the other hand, given that the average annual rate of growth of the economy has crawled up in the post-reform period from 6.5 per cent in the 8th plan (1992-97) to 7.8 per cent in the 10th plan (2002-07), after a dip to 5.5 per cent in the 9th plan (1997-2002), and to 8.1 per cent in the 11th plan (2007-12), aiming for 9 per cent in the 12th plan may appear a modest but realistic target to some.
But getting to even 9 per cent, not to speak of 10 per cent, requires governance reform and a new lease of life for entrepreneurial animal spirits.
The United Progressive Alliance government will be in office for the first two of the five years of the 12th plan period.
If it does not lay the foundation for accelerated growth in the next three years, the 12th plan target cannot be met. The approach paper must list key reforms needed at the national, state and local levels that would enable the economy to register higher growth.
The debate must be about policies, instead of focusing on numbers. Reforming public services delivery, especially in rural areas, eliminating the vestiges of the licence permit control Raj, investing in education and skills, infrastructure and energy, and fiscal consolidation and stabilisation are all key to further acceleration of growth.
The credibility of the 12th plan target will, therefore, depend critically on the credibility of the government in implementing policies required to attain that target.
At present, the government's credibility is very low. It needs to do much more to convince the nation and the world that it can deliver double-digit growth in the 12th plan period.
