Long downturn may retard growth to 6.25%

The country's growth may moderate to 6.25 per cent -- the lower end of the forecast by the Economic Survey for 2008-09 -- in the current fiscal if the global economic downturn prolongs, the Lok Sabha was informed on Friday.

". . . in the event of a more prolonged external economic downturn, with revival of global economy being delayed until early 2010, the growth may moderate to the lower end of the range," Minister of State for Finance Namo Narain Meena told the Lok Sabha in a written reply.

As per the Economic Survey for 2008-09, the real gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost is expected to grow at around 7 per cent plus/minus 0.75 per cent in 2009-10. The forecast assumes a normal monsoon and global economic recovery by September 2009.

To a query on the relative position of India vis-a-vis other Asian countries on the basis of per capita income, the minister citing data from the United Nations Statistics Division said that India's per capita income in terms of US dollars for 2007 was $976 (as on June 2009). While the corresponding figure for Pakistan was $996, China $2,604, Indonesia $1,869, Mauritius $5,846, Sri Lanka $1,676, Singapore $36,370, Macao $39,731 and Japan $34,225, he said.