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Why has the shift from ICE to electric slowed down despite initial enthusiasm?
On October 22, 2022, Ola Electric founder Bhavish Aggarwal posed a challenge to legacy two-wheeler players.
In a bold Twitter post, the maverick entrepreneur declared his mission: To end the sale of internal combustion engine (ICE) two-wheelers by 2025.
He also put out a poll asking people whether they thought he would succeed in his mission.
The response was overwhelming -- 69.8 per cent believed he would either achieve the target earlier or "get very close to it", while about 30 per cent felt he would fall short of the goal.
Aggarwal promised to revisit this vote in a few years to assess how accurate his prediction was.
Three years on, ICE vehicles are far from obsolete. On the contrary, they still dominate two-wheeler sales.
According to the government's vehicle registration website Vahan, electric two-wheeler penetration stood at just 5.4 per cent in 2023-2024 (FY24), and it is projected to remain below 6 per cent in FY25.
The data for April 2024 to February 2025 shows it at 5.8 per cent. This includes both electric scooters and motorbikes.
Among these, while e-scooter penetration is better, growth remains slow.
Industry estimates place FY24 penetration at 15 per cent, with FY25 (till February) figures hovering around 15.5 per cent.
As for motorcycles, the electric vehicle (EV) revolution hasn't quite touched them.
That says something, considering that motorbikes account for 64 per cent of the total two-wheeler sales in FY25 (until now). Barely a few thousand EV motorbikes have been sold.
Ola Electric hopes to change this. Though it has started delivering its long-awaited range of electric motorbikes, their success is yet to be determined.
In 2022, Niti Aayog (along with the Technology Information, Forecasting and Assessment Council, or TIFAC) had predicted that in the most optimistic scenario, there would be 100 per cent electric two-wheeler penetration by 2027, and at least 72 per cent even if the government withdrew the incentives by 2024. This now looks implausible.
However, in another report the same year (with BCG), Niti Aayog made a much more cautious projection -- that the penetration of electric two-wheelers would be 13-15 per cent (around 2.5-3 million units) by 2026, and 30-35 per cent in 2030.
A marathon, not a sprint
So why has the shift from ICE to electric slowed down despite initial enthusiasm?
Rakesh Sharma, executive director of Bajaj Auto, explains: "The growth of electric two-wheelers is a marathon, not a sprint.
"India is a large two-wheeler market with diverse customer needs and multiple use cases."
And, different technologies and powertrains may well coexist.
Bajaj, a legacy player that initially lagged in EV adoption, has since accelerated its efforts.
Its electric scooter registrations surged by 93 per cent over the previous year, earning Bajaj the top spot in February 2025. TVS followed closely in second place.
Harshvardhan Sharma, head of Nomura's auto retail practice, concurs that projections of ICE two-wheelers becoming obsolete are being "reconsidered".
He points to a trend of "nuanced co-existence".
"Recent data indicates a 1.9 per cent decline in electric two-wheeler sales in February 2025 versus the previous year," he says.
This stagnation, he adds, persists despite price reductions, suggesting factors beyond cost are at play.
"Broader economic conditions, such as inflation or interest rates, may have influenced purchasing decisions."
He adds that the scrutiny Ola Electric (once the market leader) faced over service quality, leading to regulatory audits, have impacted consumer trust.
The company has also been under the lens of state transport authorities, leading to several of its showrooms being reportedly closed for want of trade certificates.
Ola Electric had expanded rapidly -- going from 700 to 4,000 outlets in a matter of weeks.
Additionally, it is embroiled in a legal dispute with a vendor responsible for vehicle registrations, further impacting the registration of its vehicles.
A major barrier to EV adoption remains inadequate charging infrastructure.
A leading executive of a two-wheeler company that produces both EV and ICE vehicles, says, "The real issue isn't range anxiety. Most EV players have largely addressed that.
"In any case, the average usage is 28-30 km a day. The real problem is charging anxiety."
Many residents in flats and condos lack home-charging options, and there's no robust government policy supporting charging stations in such areas, he adds.
Also, fast-charging stations are scarce, with fewer than 8,000 serving over 3 million electric two-wheelers, the executive adds. Moreover, many electric scooters aren't compatible with fast chargers, further limiting their growth.
Regional disparities are also evident. In densely populated areas with high-rise buildings, such as central Pune and South Mumbai, electric scooter adoption is low, whereas suburbs such as Pune's outskirts or Vashi in Navi Mumbai see far higher penetration rates.
ICE, EV, CNG...
While startups have championed electric as the primary green solution, incumbents advocate for a broader mix of alternative fuels.
Bajaj, for instance, recently launched a CNG bike, which has gained traction.
In FY25 until now, it has accounted for 5 per cent of total electric two-wheeler sales.
What has worked for it is that riders travelling 50-60 km a day save Rs 1,500 in operating costs every month, thereby recovering the bike's higher upfront cost in just 10 months.
Encouraged by this success, TVS, too, has announced plans to enter the CNG motorbike market.
On electric motorcycles, the industry remains divided.
Globally, e-motorcycles form a small market, with no more than 200,000 to 300,000 being sold in a year.
These include high-powered motorbikes, which cost $3,000 and above.
Ola, meanwhile, is delivering affordable models starting at Rs 79,999, hoping to attract budget-conscious consumers.
"We're not looking at flashy, high-end models," says a senior executive at a major two-wheeler company.
"For India's mass market, motorcycles need to be practical and sustainable for everyday commutes."
He, too, says that significant technological hurdles remain, which could take up to three years to address.
This would include developing denser, compact and lighter batteries packed with more power, enhancing cooling systems, and streamlining production costs.
Despite these obstacles, electric two-wheelers offer compelling advantages.
With EV and ICE prices narrowing, electric vehicles make for the lowest operating costs.
While subsidies for electric two-wheelers will halve to Rs 5,000 in FY26, before likely disappearing altogether, this is offset by a sharp 20 per cent drop in global battery cell prices in 2024, with further declines expected.
In addition to this is the production-linked incentive scheme, which offers a 12-13 per cent revenue boost for companies achieving 50 per cent localisation.
Harshvardhan Sharma concludes: "The electric two-wheeler space shows huge promise, but it has to first navigate a complex landscape filled with both challenges and opportunities."
That's a road to be conquered first.
In the slow lane
Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff.com
