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The typical window of reform opportunity is early in a government's tenure. Having squandered the "honeymoon" period and beyond, the UPA government and Dr Singh personally find themselves empowered late in life. The question now is this: assuming that Dr Singh has acquired some political coinage, what should it be expended on? Or, what economic reforms should this government push with about nine months left to govern? Somewhat paradoxically, Dr Singh should - for reasons related to legacy and conviction - aim for ambitious rather than modest reforms. Shoring up his legacy requires a big entry on the credit side of the legacy balance sheet to offset the sizable accumulations - of stumbles, inaction, and reversals - on the debit side over these last three years. Having acted out of conviction this time, it seems only natural for Dr Singh to continue in this vein, especially since his convictions on economic issues must surely run deeper than on nukes. And a collateral benefit of acting with ambition may well be electoral: if sufficiently ambitious reforms are implemented, this government could possibly dispel some of the aura of bumbling ineffectiveness that has clouded its tenure. Conventional wisdom, however, points in the direction of other reform strategies. One such strategy is to focus on those reforms that would maximise this government's electoral prospects. Another, not mutually exclusive strategy, and indeed one that the Ministry of Finance is gearing up for, is to bring to legislative culmination those initiatives that are already in the pipeline. But the desirable (tackling inflation) is probably infeasible. And the feasible (financial sector reforms) is not ambitious enough for the current circumstances and risks squandering, yet again, the Prime Minister's political capital. There is, however, an alternative, ambitious possibility. Economic and political decentralisation, combined with the rise of coalition politics, has sharply reduced the central government's domain of economic influence. Reforming higher education will not be easy. First, the human capital resources that educational institutions will need to draw upon for teaching and research are globally mobile, posing severe challenges to India's ability to attract and retain these resources. But creating such a system will require as a first and necessary step breaking the stranglehold of regulatory bodies such as the UGC and AICTE, which have managed to restrict private sector entry into higher education. Within the next few months, Dr Singh should focus all his energies and political capital on passing legislation that would create the conditions for liberating the sector from the clutches of the vested interests, and establishing the right of private sector entry, domestic and foreign. Of course, there must be sufficient checks to ensure that the sector attracts quality institutions rather than hucksters. Improving higher education is the key to India's growth prospects. The "Precocious India" development model is based on leveraging skilled labour, which is increasingly becoming a binding constraint and the decade-long double-digit skilled wage increases are the flashing amber signs of serious scarcity ahead. But higher education is also amongst the most difficult to reform. Vested interests oppose reforms but they are not unique to education. The real difference relates to political economy: the pressure for change from below is particularly weak in this sector. Financial sector reforms will always have their moneyed, articulate, influential, and sometimes over-the-top, champions. Roads too will eventually get built because the middle class, having acquired cars, will not tolerate keeping them idle. But "exit" by the influential rich and middle class, who increasingly send their children abroad or to private institutions, has attenuated the pressure for reform in education. The transformation of Dr Manmohan Singh's image from that of a weak, hobbled leader to an effective, crafty tactician has been striking. In one go, he increased his leverage vis-�-vis Sonia Gandhi, outmanoeuvred the Communists, and forced the BJP onto the backfoot. The author is Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics and Center for Global Development, and Senior Research Professor, Johns Hopkins University. Powered by ![]() More Guest Columns |
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