The cement sector grew at a CAGR of 8.0% between FY99-FY03. However, in FY04, the sector grew at a slower rate of 5.5%. Though infrastructure development and robust housing growth are a positive, are fundamentals strong enough to support growth in the long-term?

Key Positives Infrastructure spending - The ongoing road construction project, the proposed airport privatization and river linking projects are fundamental long-term growth drivers for the industry. The Golden Quadrilateral project is already in its final leg, albeit delayed. Accelerated spending in infrastructure is likely to mute the cyclicality aspect of the cement business. Housing demand support - Cement demand has remained healthy also on account of strong support from the housing sector. Considering the steep shortfall in dwelling units in the country, prospects for the sector are promising. This is also helped by the low interest rate regime. Demand-supply dynamics - Unlike the last decade, the oversupply situation in the cement sector is likely to reduce thus bringing along with it some extent of pricing power. So, the operating profit growth is likely to be faster than the topline growth in the long-term. Consolidation trigger - The industry is lot more consolidated now that it was ever in the past. It is estimated that the top five players account for almost 60% of capacity. Fragmentation reduces pricing power and consolidated operations improve efficiency apart from providing pricing power.		Key Negatives Slow progress of reforms - Infrastructure spending, in the recent past, has been largely restricted to the government. The private sector has not been provided adequate impetus, which impacts the overall growth of the economy. Liberalizing FDI in the public infrastructure sector could provide a big fillip. But this has been slow to come by. Entry of new players - Global majors like Cemex and Lafarge are eyeing emerging markets (including India) for growth. Though smaller players could close down operations, entry of new players could restrict the pricing power. Fragmentation could increase. Susceptibility to coal and oil prices - Cement is a commodity business and any company's ability to maintain margins is dependent on the pricing environment apart from factors like access to coal and stable transportation cost. The rise in coal prices and hike in petroleum product prices could pressurise margins.

Budget 2005-06: Complete Coverage

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